| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 10–2 |
| 3 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 10–2 |
| 4 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 8–4 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 8–4 |
| 6 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 7–5 |
| 7 |  |
Key School | Zags | 6–6 |
| 8 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 5–7 |
| 9 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 5–7 |
| 10 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 5–7 |
| 11 |  |
Mercy High School | Varsity | 2–10 |
| 12 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 1–11 |
| 13 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,573 team race matches sailed before 2016-10-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 66 of 78 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.368 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 51% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 7.08 | 9.27 | 11–1 | 8.7 | +2.19 | 2.5 | 8% |
| 3 | Annapolis High School | 6.32 | 8.17 | 10–2 | 7.5 | +1.86 | 2.5 | 7% |
| 8 | Severna Park | 4.10 | 4.94 | 5–7 | 3.8 | +0.84 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 6 | Rye High School | 5.58 | 5.99 | 7–5 | 6.3 | +0.40 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 7 | Key School | 5.51 | 5.36 | 6–6 | 6.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2 | Christchurch School | 7.98 | 7.81 | 10–2 | 10.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 11 | Mercy High School | 2.82 | 2.54 | 2–10 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 10 | Broadneck High School | 5.16 | 4.83 | 5–7 | 5.5 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 6.84 | 6.45 | 8–4 | 8.6 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 4 | Mamaroneck High School | 7.14 | 6.41 | 8–4 | 9.1 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 9 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 5.84 | 4.72 | 5–7 | 6.8 | −1.12 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 12 | Norfolk Academy | 3.01 | 1.15 | 1–11 | 2.3 | −1.85 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 13 | Kecoughtan High School | 1.39 | -1.61 | 0–12 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington King | Annapolis High School | 2.01 | 3.86 | 10–2 | 7.5 | +1.86 | 2.5 | 7% |
| Kate Riley | Severna Park | 1.52 | 2.36 | 5–7 | 3.8 | +0.84 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Benjamin Podlich | Severna Park | 1.07 | 1.91 | 5–7 | 3.8 | +0.84 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Ian Mathiesen | Severna Park | 1.60 | 2.44 | 5–7 | 3.8 | +0.84 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Austin Freda | Christchurch School | 2.25 | 2.05 | 9–2 | 9.2 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Gavin Bloom | Mercy High School | 0.84 | 0.56 | 2–10 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Jasper Frazee | Broadneck High School | 0.86 | 0.53 | 5–7 | 5.5 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Lizzy Kaplan | Mamaroneck High School | 2.05 | 1.31 | 8–4 | 9.1 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Emma Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 2.23 | 1.50 | 8–4 | 9.1 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Carmen Cowles | Mamaroneck High School | 2.44 | 1.70 | 8–4 | 9.1 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 89% |
| James Golden | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.91 | 0.79 | 5–7 | 6.8 | −1.12 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Lawson Montgomery | Norfolk Academy | 1.23 | -0.23 | 1–10 | 1.9 | −1.46 | 0.7 | 95% |
| Jack Whitmore | Norfolk Academy | 0.78 | -0.97 | 1–9 | 2.1 | −1.75 | 1.0 | 97% |
| Jack Kilduff | Norfolk Academy | 0.76 | -2.24 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Sam Brady | Kecoughtan High School | 0.85 | -2.15 | 0–7 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 0.90 | -2.10 | 0–12 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Zags | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Saints | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Falcons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Admirals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Zags | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Admirals | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Oaks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Garnets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 40 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Bruins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 2-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 52 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Zags | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Saints | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 57 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-4-5 |
| 59 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 60 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 63 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 64 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 65 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 66 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 67 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 69 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 70 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 71 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 72 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 73 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 74 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 75 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 76 | |
Zags | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-5-6 |
| 77 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 78 | |
Admirals | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
