Mamaroneck High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 41–9 (82%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 21–5 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 2 | 14–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 41–9 against 37.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.66 | 2.78 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.46 | 4.00 | 12–3 | 9.2 | +1.53 | 2.3 | 7% |
| 2017-04-01 | NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | skipper | 2.42 | 5.42 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.44 | 1.70 | 8–4 | 9.1 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 2016-10-01 | NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | skipper | 2.31 | 5.31 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| 2016-04-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.02 | 5.03 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 57% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA - SE Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.9 | 1.68 |
| MASSA Spring Fleet Championship Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.1 | 1.44 |
| Mallory Championship 2018 | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.6 | 2.21 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Team Race Champs & District Qual | Skipper | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| MASSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 2.43 |
| ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE FallTeam Race Champs & District Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 1.34 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship & Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Mallory National Championship | Skipper | B | 20 | 11.0 | 0.49 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier Indian Harbor YC | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 3.08 |
| 2016 MASSA District Mallory Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.3 | 5.17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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