| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 7–1 |
| 3 |  |
Milton Academy | Mustangs | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 3–2 |
| 5 |  |
St. George's School | Dragons | 3–2 |
| 7 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 2–3 |
| 7 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 2–3 |
| 9 |  |
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 1–4 |
| 10 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 1–4 |
| 11 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 0–5 |
| 12 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,691 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 32 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.414 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.17 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Point Loma High School | 9.49 | 12.49 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| 4 | Newport Harbor High School | 7.47 | 10.34 | 5–1 | 2.6 | +2.88 | 3.7 | 4% |
| 1 | Antilles School | 8.79 | 9.85 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +1.06 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 3 | Milton Academy | 7.91 | 8.83 | 4–2 | 3.2 | +0.92 | 0.4 | 40% |
| 10 | Orcas High School | 5.36 | 5.85 | 1–4 | 0.8 | +0.49 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 5 | Mamaroneck High School | 7.90 | 8.03 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 9 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 6.01 | 5.70 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 5 | St. George's School | 8.88 | 8.03 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.86 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 7 | Ransom Everglades School | 7.49 | 6.58 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.91 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 7 | Christchurch School | 8.92 | 6.51 | 2–3 | 3.7 | −2.41 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 12 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.88 | 2.88 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 11 | Clear Falls High School | 5.62 | 2.62 | 0–5 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Pointers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mustangs | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Tigers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Knights | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Vikings | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-3-6 |
| 31 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
