St. George's School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.39 (fleet 3.86) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 43–8 (84%) as crew 5–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 21–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 5–0 |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 22–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 48–8 against 43.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 3.01 | 2.16 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.86 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.84 | 3.80 | 18–2 | 16.3 | +0.96 | 0.8 | 25% |
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | crew | 2.86 | 5.86 | 5–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 17% |
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.52 | 3.43 | 8–2 | 6.7 | +0.91 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | skipper | 2.21 | 2.97 | 14–2 | 12.8 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 34% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Newport, RI | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 2.87 |
| NESSA O'Day Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.7 | 2.71 |
| ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Racing Championship (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.9 | 1.33 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 90% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | Crew | TR | 11 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.3 | 1.72 |
| Mallory Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.7 | 1.49 |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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