| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Shorecrest Preparatory School | Chargers | 9–2 |
| 2 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 9–2 |
| 3 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 8–3 |
| 4 |  |
St. George's School | Dragons | 8–3 |
| 5 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 8–3 |
| 6 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 6–5 |
| 7 |  |
Portsmouth Abbey School | Ravens | 5–6 |
| 8 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 4–7 |
| 9 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 3–8 |
| 10 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 3–8 |
| 11 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 2–9 |
| 12 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 1–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,241 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 69 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.582 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 52% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shorecrest Preparatory School | 8.38 | 9.56 | 11–3 | 8.5 | +1.18 | 1.6 | 13% |
| 2 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 7.97 | 9.13 | 10–4 | 7.2 | +1.15 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 5 | Severn School | 7.96 | 8.98 | 8–3 | 6.1 | +1.02 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 3 | Newport Harbor High School | 8.32 | 8.96 | 8–3 | 6.9 | +0.63 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 4 | St. George's School | 8.65 | 8.96 | 8–3 | 7.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 7 | Portsmouth Abbey School | 7.19 | 7.47 | 5–6 | 4.5 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 8 | Bainbridge High School | 6.83 | 6.97 | 4–7 | 3.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 6 | Christchurch School | 8.19 | 7.95 | 6–5 | 6.5 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 11 | Clear Falls High School | 6.06 | 5.79 | 2–9 | 2.3 | −0.26 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 10 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 7.42 | 6.39 | 3–8 | 4.8 | −1.03 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 9 | Point Loma High School | 8.42 | 6.25 | 3–8 | 7.0 | −2.17 | 4.7 | >99% |
| 12 | Minnetonka High School | 7.00 | 4.72 | 1–10 | 3.9 | −2.27 | 3.1 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Chargers | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Ravens | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Ravens | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Chargers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ravens | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Knights | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Chargers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ravens | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Dragons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ravens | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Sailors | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Ravens | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-3-6 |
| 32 | |
Dragons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-4-6 DSQ |
| 33 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Spartans | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ravens | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Sailors | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Admirals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 DSQ |
| 41 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-5-6 DSQ |
| 43 | |
Chargers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Pointers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ravens | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-5 |
| 52 | |
Dragons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Ravens | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Chargers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ravens | 3-4-5 |
| 60 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 61 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-4-6 |
| 64 | |
Ravens | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 65 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 66 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 67 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-4-6 |
| 69 | |
Chargers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
