Severn School '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.54 (fleet 2.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–12 (74%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 20–6 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 14–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 8–3 against 6.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.04 | 3.06 | 8–3 | 6.1 | +1.02 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA District Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MASSA 2015 Mallory Qualifier | Crew | B | 7 | 1.9 | — |
| Mallory Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.3 | 1.34 |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA 2014 Fall Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| 2014 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.3 | 0.03 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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