MASSA District Baker Qualifier

HostNorfolk Yacht and Country Club
Date04/25/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses	0–0
2	Severn School	Admirals	0–0
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	0–0
4	Key School	Zags	0–0
5	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	0–0
6	Annapolis High School	Panthers	0–0
7	Rye High School	Garnets	0–0
8	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 620 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 51 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.480 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	1	9.27 school +0.07	Hector Guzman / Sally Johnson 3.34 Jack Elkin / Claire Rae 2.98 Andy Burns / Annabel Carrington 2.80	80%	13–2 (87%)	+0.9
2	Severn School Admirals	2	8.19 school +0.20	Floyd Nick / Morgan Ian 2.82 Connor Bayless / Caroline Mcneil 2.98 White Emma / Stephanie Houck 2.11	61%	12–3 (80%)	+2.8
3	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	3	8.14 school +0.41	Dreugh Phillips / Sarah Smith 3.00 Darden Purrington / Hunter Kahler 2.35 Victor Layne / Mike Klink 2.32 5–8 Ellie Maus / Daniel Vail 2.34 2–0	60%	7–8 (47%)	−2.1
4	Key School Zags	6	6.98 school −0.24	Christian Filter / Kendall Schneider 2.69 Bryan Bay / Isadora Gallanar 2.35 Harrison Koller / Declan Lombard 2.08	38%	6–9 (40%)	+0.3
5	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	5	6.93 school +0.25	Marshall Mccraw / Alek Sas James Whitmore / Anna Cornetta 2.56 7–5 Alexander Singh / Jessica Williams 1.87 7–5 James Whitmore / Jessica Williams 2.58 0–2 Alexander Singh / Lawson Montgomery 1.89 0–2	44%	7–7 (50%)	+0.9
6	Annapolis High School Panthers	4	7.55 school +0.31	Kyle Comerford / Kimberly Leonard 2.77 Porter Kavle / Lexi Pline 2.71 Remington King / Nicholas Salvesen 1.69	55%	5–9 (36%)	−2.8
7	Rye High School Garnets	7	4.50	Sam Papert / Lindsay Powers Sean Walsh / Rebecca Fung Dwight Greenhouse / Emily Quirke	9%	1–13 (7%)	−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Severn School	8.19	9.59	12–3	9.2	+1.41	2.1	8%
1	Christchurch School	9.27	9.89	13–2	12.1	+0.62	0.3	41%
5	Norfolk Academy	6.93	7.36	7–7	6.1	+0.43	0.2	39%
4	Key School	6.98	7.13	6–9	5.7	+0.15	0.0	53%
7	Rye High School	4.50	4.24	1–13	1.2	−0.27	0.0	72%
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	8.14	7.27	7–8	9.0	−0.87	1.0	93%
6	Annapolis High School	7.55	6.18	5–9	7.8	−1.37	2.1	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Floyd Nick	Severn School	2.82	4.22	12–3	9.2	+1.41	2.1	8%
White Emma	Severn School	2.11	3.51	12–3	9.2	+1.41	2.1	8%
Andy Burns	Christchurch School	2.80	3.42	13–2	12.1	+0.62	0.3	41%
Alexander Singh	Norfolk Academy	1.87	2.30	7–7	6.1	+0.43	0.2	39%
Sam Papert	Rye High School	0.95	0.68	1–13	1.2	−0.27	0.0	72%
Sean Walsh	Rye High School	1.77	1.50	1–13	1.2	−0.27	0.0	72%
Dwight Greenhouse	Rye High School	1.27	1.01	1–13	1.2	−0.27	0.0	72%
Remington King	Annapolis High School	1.69	0.32	5–9	7.8	−1.37	2.1	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Norfolk Academy	Norfolk Collegiate School	28%	upset
1	3	Christchurch School	Rye High School	98%
1	4	Severn School	Annapolis High School	62%
1	5	Norfolk Academy	Key School	50%	upset
1	6	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	70%
1	8	Annapolis High School	Rye High School	93%
1	9	Christchurch School	Key School	86%
1	10	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	72%
1	11	Norfolk Collegiate School	Rye High School	95%
1	13	Christchurch School	Severn School	70%
1	14	Key School	Rye High School	88%
1	16	Norfolk Collegiate School	Annapolis High School	62%
1	17	Rye High School	Severn School	5%	upset
1	19	Norfolk Collegiate School	Key School	72%
1	20	Norfolk Academy	Annapolis High School	38%	upset
1	22	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	51%
1	23	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	86%
1	24	Key School	Annapolis High School	39%	upset
1	26	Norfolk Academy	Rye High School	87%
1	27	Severn School	Key School	72%
1	28	Christchurch School	Annapolis High School	79%
2	29	Norfolk Collegiate School	Norfolk Academy	72%
2	31	Christchurch School	Rye High School	98%
2	32	Severn School	Annapolis High School	62%
2	33	Key School	Norfolk Academy	51%
2	34	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	71%
2	36	Annapolis High School	Rye High School	91%
2	37	Key School	Christchurch School	14%	upset
2	38	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	72%
2	39	Norfolk Collegiate School	Rye High School	94%
2	41	Christchurch School	Severn School	70%
2	42	Key School	Rye High School	86%
2	44	Norfolk Collegiate School	Annapolis High School	61%
2	45	Severn School	Rye High School	94%
2	47	Key School	Norfolk Collegiate School	29%	upset
2	48	Annapolis High School	Norfolk Academy	62%
2	50	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	51%
2	51	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	86%
2	52	Annapolis High School	Key School	61%
2	54	Norfolk Academy	Rye High School	85%
2	55	Severn School	Key School	72%
2	56	Christchurch School	Annapolis High School	79%
4	57	Severn School	Key School	72%
4	58	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	71%
4	59	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	51%
4	60	Christchurch School	Key School	86%
4	61	Norfolk Collegiate School	Key School	71%
4	62	Severn School	Christchurch School	30%	upset
4	63	Annapolis High School	Rye High School	90%
4	66	Norfolk Academy	Rye High School	85%
4	68	Norfolk Academy	Annapolis High School	38%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
2	Zags	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
3	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
4	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
5	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
6	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
7	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
8	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
9	Seahorses	1-3-4	def.	Zags	2-5-6
10	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
11	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
12	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
13	Seahorses	2-3-5	def.	Admirals	1-4-6
14	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
15	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
16	Oaks	1-3-6	def.	Panthers	2-4-5
17	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
18	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6 DNS
19	Oaks	1-3-6	def.	Zags	2-4-5
20	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Panthers	3-5-6
21	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
22	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
23	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
24	Zags	1-3-6	def.	Panthers	2-4-5
25	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6 DSQ
26	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
27	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
28	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6
29	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
30	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
31	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
32	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
33	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
34	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
35	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6 DNF
36	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
37	Zags	1-3-5	def.	Seahorses	2-4-6
38	Admirals	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
39	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
40	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
41	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
42	Zags	1-4-5	def.	Garnets	2-3-6
43	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
44	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
45	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
46	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
47	Zags	1-4-5	def.	Oaks	2-3-6
48	Panthers	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
49	Garnets	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
50	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
51	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
52	Panthers	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
53	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
55	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
56	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6
57	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Zags	3-4-5
58	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
59	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
60	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
61	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
62	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
63	Panthers	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
65	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
67	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
68	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Panthers	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Andy Burns '17 Hector Guzman '16 Jack Elkin '15	Annabel Carrington '15 Sally Johnson '18 Claire Rae '16
Severn School	Admirals	Connor Bayless '17 Floyd Nick '15 White Emma '15	Caroline Mcneil '18 Morgan Ian '15 Stephanie Houck '17
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Darden Purrington '16 Dreugh Phillips '16 Ellie Maus '18 Victor Layne '16	Hunter Kahler '17 Sarah Smith '18 Daniel Vail '17 Mike Klink '15
Key School	Zags	Bryan Bay '16 Christian Filter '16 Harrison Koller '17	Isadora Gallanar '17 Kendall Schneider '17 Declan Lombard '17
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Alexander Singh '15 James Whitmore '16 Jessica Williams '16 Marshall Mccraw '16	Jessica Williams '16 Lawson Montgomery '18 Anna Cornetta '16 Alexander Singh '15 Alek Sas '18
Annapolis High School	Panthers	Kyle Comerford '15 Porter Kavle '18 Remington King '17	Kimberly Leonard '18 Lexi Pline '15 Nicholas Salvesen '18
Rye High School	Garnets	Dwight Greenhouse '15 Sam Papert '15 Sean Walsh '16	Emily Quirke '15 Lindsay Powers '17 Rebecca Fung '15

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 71% · Pressure 1012.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.0 kn

avg · max 6.3 kn

Gusts to 14.8 kn

From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1012.4 hPa Rain0.15 in

What this breeze does at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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