Christchurch School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.08 (fleet 3.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 39–13 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 21–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 18–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 21–8 against 23.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-31 | MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | skipper | 2.66 | 2.25 | 13–4 | 13.8 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 3x3 Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.55 | 0.83 | 8–4 | 9.9 | −1.72 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NSA York Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 1.57 |
| VISA NCS 3x3 Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Maury Smithfield Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 3.29 |
| MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA PHS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | 3.08 |
| VISA NCS/CCS 3v3 Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| VISA MHS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.0 | 2.24 |
| VISA Leukemia Cup Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | 2.63 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| MASSA District Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| VISA Fall Championship Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.2 | 5.33 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | 2.51 |
| HCS/HRA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.6 | 2.10 |
| 2014 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 0.43 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
