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VISA CCS Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 19 12 31
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 23 10 33
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 24 20 44
4 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 20 33 53
5 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 38 31 69
6 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 1 26 52 78
7 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 29 70 99
8 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 72 31 103
9 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 49 69 118
10 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 75 54 129
11 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 80 57 137
12 York High School York High School Varsity 77 67 144
13 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 68 85 153
14 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 2 84 74 158
15 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 63 98 161
16 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 87 90 177
17 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 94 84 178
18 St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 101 83 184
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 4 1 1 6 6 19 Hector Guzman '16
Claire Rae '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 5 3 3 3 4 2 20 Gray Kiger '16
Alek Sas '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 6 5 4 3 3 23 Andy Burns '17
Annabell Carrington '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 6 5 2 5 5 1 24 Dreugh Phillips '16
Nick Baker '16
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 1 3 2 4 6 7 4 26 Alexander Hanna '15
Wilson Hatchett '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 4 7 6 2 2 8 29 Ellie Maus '18 [1-6]
Mike Klink '15 [1-2]
Daniel Vail '17 [3-4]
Nathan Stell '17 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 7 1 7 8 10 5 38 William Whitmore '16
Jack Dickerson '15
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 11 10 9 11 1 7 49 Kaila Pfrang '17
Hailey Gilman '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 9 12 8 17 8 9 63 Jonathan Rowland '15
Charlotte Hennessy '15
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 12 8 12 13 13 10 68 Richard Gunn '15
Meredith Watkins '15
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 17 13 11 7 9 15 72 Graeme Alderman '15
Ralph Levy '18
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 8 15 14 9 16 13 75 Alex Shinn '15
Ramani Perera '15
York High School York High School Varsity 10 14 10 15 11 17 77 Daniel Hodges '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 13 9 18 16 12 12 80 Neilson Woodfield '16 [1-6]
Casey Cordner '16 [1-2, 5-6]
David Michael Jennings '14 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 2 14 11 15 12 14 18 84 Nathaniel Gibson '15
Lauren Levinson '16
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 15 DSQ 13 14 15 11 87 Parker Bunting '18
Bryce Hoen '18
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 18 DSQ 16 10 17 14 94 Miles Campbell '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Fitzharris '15 [3-4]
Jared Cronin '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Harry Ross '17 [3-4]
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 16 16 17 18 18 16 101 Lilli Cooper '17 [1-6]
Elizabeth Magee '17 [1-4]
Caroline Gaenzle '16 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 10 Jack Elkin '15
Thomas Walker '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 2 3 2 BKD BKD 12 Alex Moreno '15
Bryce Norvell '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 2 1 6 4 4 3 20 Darden Purrington '16 [1-6]
Sarah Smith '18 [1-4]
Matt Wright '19 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 5 9 4 6 2 BKD 31 Marshall Mccraw '16
Alexander Singh '15
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 7 4 7 3 5 5 31 Nathaniel Llewellyn '15 [1-6]
Alex O'Connell '15 [1-2]
Colin Smith '16 [3-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 4 5 5 10 7 2 33 Jessica Williams '16
Elise Turrietta '16
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 1 6 7 8 12 10 9 52 Kendra Walker '17
Nicole Kublins '15
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 14 17 2 5 3 13 54 Eric Malarkey '15
Grant Rosen '15
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 8 8 9 13 8 11 57 Blake Harrington '18
David Michael Jennings '14
York High School York High School Varsity 9 10 10 14 17 7 67 Zane Morris '18
Ben Clarke '16
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 11 6 15 15 14 8 69 Harrison Parker '18
Tj Argust '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 10 13 11 8 12 16 70 Joe Morrison '16 [1-2]
Evan Maguire '15 [3-4]
Hunter Kahler '17 [5-6]
Ashley Obermeyer '18 [1-2]
Chris Robertson '19 [3-4]
Parker Purrington '19 [5-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 2 16 16 12 9 11 10 74 Rick Hall '15
Austin Ramsey '17
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 18 18 13 11 9 14 83 Blair Cavanaugh '16 [1-6]
Colin Knight '16 [1-4]
Swayne Martin '15 [5-6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 17 11 14 7 16 DSQ 84 Henry Eley '14
Henry Wadill '17
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 12 14 16 16 15 12 85 Ian O'Connell '16 [1-6]
Burke Lawlor '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Wilcox '16 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 15 12 17 18 13 15 90 Anna Patterson '16
Sam Brady '19
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 13 15 18 17 18 17 98 Will Ellson '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Charlie White '15 [3-4]
Riley Golski '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Maggie Rowland '16 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1224466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 21616181822
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity121214141616
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity9911111313
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity66881010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity101012121414
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1113355
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 21515171711
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1335577
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 217171133
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity77991111
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 1446688
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 218182244
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield8810101212
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Varsity141416161818
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity131315151717
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity557799
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity111113131515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1335577
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 217171133
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity131315151717
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity101012121414
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity77991111
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity111113131515
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1224466
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 21616181822
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1446688
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 218182244
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity8810101212
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 1557799
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 2113355
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield9911111313
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Varsity1515171711
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity141416161818
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity66881010
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity121214141616
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Hector Guzman '16 Claire Rae '16
Seahorses 1 Alex Moreno '15 Bryce Norvell '15
Christchurch School Christchurch School Andy Burns '17 Annabell Carrington '15
Seahorses 2 Jack Elkin '15 Thomas Walker '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Miles Campbell '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Fitzharris '15 [3-4]		 Jared Cronin '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Harry Ross '17 [3-4]
Varsity Henry Eley '14 Henry Wadill '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Parker Bunting '18 Bryce Hoen '18
Varsity Anna Patterson '16 Sam Brady '19
Maury High School Maury High School Jonathan Rowland '15 Charlotte Hennessy '15
Varsity Will Ellson '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Charlie White '15 [3-4]		 Riley Golski '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Maggie Rowland '16 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Varsity Harrison Parker '18 Tj Argust '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Gray Kiger '16 Alek Sas '18
Bulldogs 1 Jessica Williams '16 Elise Turrietta '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy William Whitmore '16 Jack Dickerson '15
Bulldogs 2 Marshall Mccraw '16 Alexander Singh '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Dreugh Phillips '16 Nick Baker '16
Varsity 1 Darden Purrington '16 [1-6] Sarah Smith '18 [1-4]
Matt Wright '19 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 [1-6] Mike Klink '15 [1-2]
Daniel Vail '17 [3-4]
Nathan Stell '17 [5-6]
Varsity 2 Joe Morrison '16 [1-2]
Evan Maguire '15 [3-4]
Hunter Kahler '17 [5-6]		 Ashley Obermeyer '18 [1-2]
Chris Robertson '19 [3-4]
Parker Purrington '19 [5-6]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Neilson Woodfield '16 [1-6] Casey Cordner '16 [1-2, 5-6]
David Michael Jennings '14 [3-4]
Varsity Blake Harrington '18 David Michael Jennings '14
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Alexander Hanna '15 Wilson Hatchett '17
Varsity 1 Kendra Walker '17 Nicole Kublins '15
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Nathaniel Gibson '15 Lauren Levinson '16
Varsity 2 Rick Hall '15 Austin Ramsey '17
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Alex Shinn '15 Ramani Perera '15
Smithfield Eric Malarkey '15 Grant Rosen '15
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Lilli Cooper '17 [1-6] Elizabeth Magee '17 [1-4]
Caroline Gaenzle '16 [5-6]
Varsity Blair Cavanaugh '16 [1-6] Colin Knight '16 [1-4]
Swayne Martin '15 [5-6]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Graeme Alderman '15 Ralph Levy '18
Varsity Nathaniel Llewellyn '15 [1-6] Alex O'Connell '15 [1-2]
Colin Smith '16 [3-6]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Richard Gunn '15 Meredith Watkins '15
Varsity Ian O'Connell '16 [1-6] Burke Lawlor '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Wilcox '16 [3-4]
York High School York High School Daniel Hodges '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity Zane Morris '18 Ben Clarke '16

Conditions — 09/06/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

84°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1015.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch school: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch school by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Christchurch school, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →