Phoebus High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 (fleet 1.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–32 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 4–19 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (35 matches) the record is 9–26 against 8.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.27 | -1.73 | 0–15 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 3v3 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.15 | 1.72 | 4–4 | 3.5 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 3x3 Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.16 | 3.12 | 5–7 | 3.3 | +1.96 | 2.1 | 8% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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