| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 8–2 |
| 4 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Phoebus High School | Varsity | 4–6 |
| 6 |  |
Maury High School | Varsity | 4–6 |
| 7 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 2–8 |
| 8 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Varsity | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 440 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 43 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.385 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Maury High School | 0.97 | 2.51 | 4–6 | 2.1 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 12% |
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 6.98 | 8.45 | 10–2 | 8.3 | +1.47 | 1.4 | 17% |
| 4 | Poquoson High School | 2.56 | 2.96 | 5–5 | 4.6 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy | 6.55 | 6.92 | 8–4 | 7.5 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2 | Christchurch School | 7.40 | 6.86 | 9–3 | 9.8 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Phoebus High School | 4.58 | 3.76 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.83 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 8 | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.06 | -0.30 | 1–9 | 2.2 | −1.36 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 7 | York High School | 2.04 | 0.48 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.55 | 1.5 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Rowland | Maury High School | 0.71 | 2.25 | 4–6 | 2.1 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Will Ellson | Maury High School | 0.27 | 1.81 | 4–6 | 2.1 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Charlie White | Maury High School | -0.19 | 1.35 | 4–6 | 2.1 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Wilson Hatchett | Poquoson High School | 0.64 | 1.04 | 5–5 | 4.6 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Austin Freda | Norfolk Academy | 2.31 | 2.67 | 8–4 | 7.5 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Alexander Singh | Norfolk Academy | 1.18 | 1.54 | 8–4 | 7.5 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Alex Moreno | Christchurch School | 1.65 | 1.06 | 6–3 | 6.8 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Neilson Woodfield | Phoebus High School | 1.63 | 0.80 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.83 | 0.4 | 89% |
| Andy Burns | Christchurch School | 3.25 | 1.92 | 5–3 | 6.4 | −1.33 | 1.1 | 96% |
| Brandon Kim | Hampton Roads Academy | -0.84 | -2.21 | 1–9 | 2.2 | −1.36 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Zane Morris | York High School | 0.74 | -0.81 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.55 | 1.5 | 97% |
| Ben Clarke | York High School | 0.46 | -1.10 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.55 | 1.5 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Islanders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 30 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Islanders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Islanders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 42 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Islanders | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
