Norfolk Academy '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 (fleet 1.37) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 49–16 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | — | 27–4 |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | — | 12–8 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 2–0 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 8–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 38–12 against 37.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | crew | 3.08 | 0.67 | 2–3 | 3.7 | −2.41 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | crew | 2.94 | 4.68 | 13–1 | 11.1 | +1.75 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 2017-04-01 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.13 | 6.13 | 12–0 | 9.9 | ≥+3.00 | 3.2 | 8% |
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | crew | 2.68 | 0.81 | 3–7 | 5.9 | −1.87 | 3.0 | 99% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 3v3 Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.50 | 3.81 | 8–1 | 6.9 | +1.31 | 0.8 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NCS/CCS 3v3 Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Thomas Walker |  St. Mary's College of Maryland |
'21 |
| ISSA | Thomas Walker |  Christchurch School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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