| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. George's School | Dragons | 11–0 |
| 2 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 9–2 |
| 3 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 8–3 |
| 4 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 7–4 |
| 5 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 7–4 |
| 6 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 7–4 |
| 7 |  |
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | 5–6 |
| 8 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 4–7 |
| 9 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 4–7 |
| 10 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 2–9 |
| 11 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 2–9 |
| 12 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 0–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,386 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 63 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.473 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.28 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. George's School | 8.97 | 11.97 | 11–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 5.2 | 2% |
| 4 | Clear Falls High School | 7.13 | 8.73 | 7–4 | 4.1 | +1.60 | 2.6 | 5% |
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School | 8.57 | 9.94 | 9–2 | 7.0 | +1.36 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 3 | Point Loma High School | 8.68 | 8.96 | 7–3 | 6.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 11 | Sehome High School | 5.75 | 5.76 | 2–9 | 2.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 6 | Antilles School | 8.49 | 8.29 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 5 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 8.46 | 8.18 | 6–4 | 6.5 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 7 | Tabor Academy | 8.05 | 7.55 | 5–6 | 5.9 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 10 | Minnetonka High School | 6.66 | 5.64 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −1.02 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 8 | Severn School | 8.41 | 7.29 | 4–4 | 5.4 | −1.12 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 9 | Christchurch School | 8.15 | 6.83 | 4–7 | 6.3 | −1.32 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 12 | Lake Forest High School | 5.55 | 2.55 | 0–11 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Logue | St. George's School | 3.27 | 6.27 | 11–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 5.2 | 2% |
| Nathan Zittrer | Clear Falls High School | 1.00 | 2.60 | 7–4 | 4.1 | +1.60 | 2.6 | 5% |
| Jeffrey Werner | Sehome High School | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2–9 | 2.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Alie (Alexandra) Toppa | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 2.56 | 2.29 | 6–4 | 6.5 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Chase Cooper | Tabor Academy | 2.68 | 2.34 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Lily Loosbrock | Minnetonka High School | 2.09 | 1.06 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −1.02 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Conrad (Cort) Vandlik | Minnetonka High School | 2.50 | 1.48 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −1.02 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Austen Freda | Christchurch School | 2.55 | 1.23 | 4–7 | 6.3 | −1.32 | 1.7 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Mariners | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 9 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seawolves | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Knights | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Pointers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Dragons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Knights | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Admirals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Knights | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Dragons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 49 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 1-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Admirals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 61 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 62 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 64 | |
Admirals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 1-5-6 |
| 65 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 66 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
