St. George's School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.42 (fleet 3.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 60–15 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 27–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 22–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 11–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (58 matches) the record is 49–9 against 45.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.27 | 6.27 | 11–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 5.2 | 2% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | skipper | 3.32 | 2.83 | 16–4 | 17.1 | −0.49 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.98 | 3.29 | 8–3 | 7.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | skipper | 2.92 | 3.67 | 14–2 | 12.8 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 34% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Newport, RI | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.6 | 1.31 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 20 | 6.5 | 1.85 |
| ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 1.42 |
| NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.1 | 1.47 |
| Mallory Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.4 | 1.48 |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Mallory Trophy - ISSA Doublehanded | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.1 | 1.75 |
| Baker Trophy-ISSA Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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