NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy)

HostMIT
Date05/21/2016
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. George's School	Dragons	16–4
2	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	15–5
3	Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	14–6
4	Milton Academy	Mustangs	8–12
5	Falmouth High School	Yachtsmen	6–8
6	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	5–9
7	North Kingstown High School	Skippers	4–10
8	Sharon High School	Eagles	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,164 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 53 of 68 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.499 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 35% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. George's School Dragons	1	9.31 school +0.60	Matt Logue / Ben White 2.67 Collin Alexander / Taylor Kirkpatrick 2.43 Will Logue / Oliver Parsons 3.32	85%	16–4 (80%)	−1.1
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	2	7.90	Tucker Hersam / Stephanie Zou 2.37 Chase Cooper / Nick Marshall 2.48 Parker Loftus / Lulu Russell 2.77 10–0 Parker Loftus / Nathalie Cavallo 2.78 5–5	62%	15–5 (75%)	+2.5
3	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	6	6.69	Cj Mckenna / Morgan Farber 2.05 Carter Pemberton / Meg Wilson 2.64 John Wetzel / Nellie Stidham 1.68	40%	14–6 (70%)	+6.1
4	Milton Academy Mustangs	3	7.60 school −0.28	Henry Burnes / Jamie Fox 3.03 Charles Hibben / Isabelle Alex Luke Monnich / Emily Grace 2.73 2–8 Luke Monnich / Christina Sakellaris 2.50 6–4	58%	8–12 (40%)	−3.6
5	Falmouth High School Yachtsmen	5	6.41 school −0.30	Caleb Robinson / Grace Mooridian 2.11 Audrey Morin / Peter Morrissette 1.93 Cameron Rousseau / Sierra Farhman 2.46 6–6 Cameron Rousseau / Owen White 2.49 0–2	42%	6–8 (43%)	+0.1
6	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	7	6.20 school +0.05	Briggs Lalor / Carly Berry 4–8 Nicholas Stefanoni / George Sidamon-Eristoff 2.00 5–7 Christine Klingler / Jack Chrysler 2–4 Tommy Whittemore / Sophie Mason 2.25 2–2 Christine Klingler / Anne-Elizabeth Sidamon-Eristoff 1–3 Tommy Whittemore / Jack Chrysler 2.48 1–3	38%	5–9 (36%)	−0.2
7	North Kingstown High School Skippers	4	6.47 school −0.09	Noah Simmons / Adeline Sutton 2.12 2–8 Delaney Bamford / Ryan Soucy 2.19 4–6 Aidan Naughton / Jaia Colongese 2.11 1–5 Marina Barzaghi / Elsa Kincaid 2.07 2–4 Marina Barzaghi / Kevin Stamp 2.06 0–4 Aidan Naughton / Kevin Stamp 2.21 3–1 Aidan Naughton / Will Andrews 2.13 0–2	44%	4–10 (29%)	−2.1
8	Sharon High School Eagles	8	4.32	Jack Eberhardt / Lynn Fu Meghan Haviland / Colin Snow Larry Zmoira / Alissa Chen 0–8 Pauljack Solomon / Merrick Tian 0–6	12%	0–14 (0%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Cape Cod Academy	6.69	8.70	14–6	7.9	+2.02	6.8	<1%
2	Tabor Academy	7.90	8.85	15–5	12.5	+0.95	1.3	15%
5	Falmouth High School	6.41	6.44	6–8	5.9	+0.03	0.0	60%
6	The Hotchkiss School	6.20	6.09	5–9	5.2	−0.12	0.0	67%
1	St. George's School	9.31	8.82	16–4	17.1	−0.49	0.3	84%
7	North Kingstown High School	6.47	5.42	4–10	6.1	−1.04	1.2	95%
4	Milton Academy	7.60	6.43	8–12	11.6	−1.17	2.3	98%
8	Sharon High School	4.32	1.32	0–14	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Chase Cooper	Tabor Academy	2.48	3.42	15–5	12.5	+0.95	1.3	15%
Tommy Whittemore	The Hotchkiss School	2.25	2.54	3–5	2.7	+0.29	0.0	55%
Cameron Rousseau	Falmouth High School	2.46	2.49	6–8	5.9	+0.03	0.0	60%
Audrey Morin	Falmouth High School	1.93	1.96	6–8	5.9	+0.03	0.0	60%
Will Logue	St. George's School	3.32	2.83	16–4	17.1	−0.49	0.3	84%
Aidan Naughton	North Kingstown High School	2.11	1.12	4–8	5.9	−0.99	1.0	94%
Charles Hibben	Milton Academy	1.99	0.81	8–12	11.6	−1.17	2.3	98%
Larry Zmoira	Sharon High School	1.12	-1.88	0–8	1.2	≤−3.00	1.7	>99%
Pauljack Solomon	Sharon High School	1.02	-1.98	0–6	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tabor Academy	North Kingstown High School	76%
1	2	Milton Academy	The Hotchkiss School	81%
1	3	Cape Cod Academy	Falmouth High School	54%
1	4	St. George's School	Sharon High School	98%
1	5	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	54%
1	6	Cape Cod Academy	North Kingstown High School	53%
1	7	The Hotchkiss School	Sharon High School	79%
1	8	St. George's School	Falmouth High School	90%
1	9	Cape Cod Academy	Milton Academy	31%	upset
1	10	Tabor Academy	Sharon High School	95%
1	11	North Kingstown High School	Falmouth High School	53%
1	12	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	87%
1	13	Cape Cod Academy	Sharon High School	87%
1	14	Milton Academy	Falmouth High School	69%
1	15	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	77%
1	16	St. George's School	North Kingstown High School	90%
1	17	Falmouth High School	Sharon High School	83%
1	18	Cape Cod Academy	The Hotchkiss School	61%
1	19	Milton Academy	North Kingstown High School	69%
1	20	Tabor Academy	St. George's School	25%	upset
1	21	Falmouth High School	The Hotchkiss School	56%
1	22	North Kingstown High School	Sharon High School	84%
1	23	Cape Cod Academy	Tabor Academy	28%	upset
1	24	St. George's School	Milton Academy	80%
1	25	North Kingstown High School	The Hotchkiss School	57%
1	26	Tabor Academy	Falmouth High School	75%
1	27	Milton Academy	Sharon High School	92%
1	28	Cape Cod Academy	St. George's School	11%	upset
2	29	Tabor Academy	North Kingstown High School	75%
2	30	Milton Academy	The Hotchkiss School	79%
2	31	Falmouth High School	Cape Cod Academy	46%	upset
2	32	St. George's School	Sharon High School	98%
2	33	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	54%
2	34	Cape Cod Academy	North Kingstown High School	53%
2	35	The Hotchkiss School	Sharon High School	76%
2	36	St. George's School	Falmouth High School	90%
2	37	Cape Cod Academy	Milton Academy	32%	upset
2	38	Tabor Academy	Sharon High School	94%
2	39	Falmouth High School	North Kingstown High School	49%	upset
2	40	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	14%	upset
2	41	Cape Cod Academy	Sharon High School	85%
2	42	Milton Academy	Falmouth High School	70%
2	43	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	75%
2	44	St. George's School	North Kingstown High School	90%
2	45	Falmouth High School	Sharon High School	81%
2	46	Cape Cod Academy	The Hotchkiss School	59%
2	47	Milton Academy	North Kingstown High School	69%
2	48	Tabor Academy	St. George's School	25%	upset
2	49	The Hotchkiss School	Falmouth High School	45%	upset
2	50	North Kingstown High School	Sharon High School	83%
2	51	Cape Cod Academy	Tabor Academy	28%	upset
2	52	St. George's School	Milton Academy	80%
2	53	The Hotchkiss School	North Kingstown High School	44%	upset
2	54	Falmouth High School	Tabor Academy	25%	upset
2	55	Milton Academy	Sharon High School	92%
2	56	St. George's School	Cape Cod Academy	89%
3	57	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	75%
3	58	Cape Cod Academy	Milton Academy	32%	upset
3	59	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	55%
3	60	St. George's School	Cape Cod Academy	89%
3	61	St. George's School	Milton Academy	80%
3	62	Tabor Academy	Cape Cod Academy	72%
4	63	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	75%
4	64	Cape Cod Academy	Milton Academy	32%	upset
4	65	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	55%
4	66	St. George's School	Cape Cod Academy	88%
4	67	St. George's School	Milton Academy	80%
4	68	Tabor Academy	Cape Cod Academy	72%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
2	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Bearcats	1-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Yachtsmen	4-5-6
4	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
5	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
6	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Skippers	1-5-6
7	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
8	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Yachtsmen	3-5-6
9	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Mustangs	2-4-6
10	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
11	Skippers	1-2-5	def.	Yachtsmen	3-4-6
12	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Bearcats	1-5-6
13	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
14	Mustangs	1-3-5	def.	Yachtsmen	2-4-6
15	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
16	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6
17	Yachtsmen	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
19	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
20	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
21	Yachtsmen	2-3-6	def.	Bearcats	1-4-5 DSQ
22	Skippers	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
23	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
24	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Mustangs	2-4-6
25	Skippers	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
26	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Yachtsmen	4-5-6
27	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
28	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
29	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Skippers	1-5-6
30	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Bearcats	4-5-6
31	Yachtsmen	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
32	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
33	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Mustangs	2-5-6
34	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6
35	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
36	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Yachtsmen	4-5-6
37	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
38	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
39	Yachtsmen	2-3-5	def.	Skippers	1-4-6
40	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
42	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Yachtsmen	4-5-6
43	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Bearcats	4-5-6
44	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6 DSQ
45	Yachtsmen	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
46	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
47	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6
48	Seawolves	2-3-5	def.	Dragons	1-4-6
49	Bearcats	1-3-6	def.	Yachtsmen	2-4-5
50	Skippers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
51	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
52	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
53	Bearcats	2-3-5	def.	Skippers	1-4-6
54	Yachtsmen	2-3-5	def.	Seawolves	1-4-6
55	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
56	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
57	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
58	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Mustangs	2-4-5
59	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
60	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
61	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
62	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
63	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
64	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
65	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
66	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
67	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
68	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. George's School	Dragons	Collin Alexander '16 Matt Logue '18 Will Logue '16	Taylor Kirkpatrick '16 Ben White '18 Oliver Parsons '17
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Chase Cooper '17 Parker Loftus '16 Tucker Hersam '16	Nick Marshall '18 Lulu Russell '17 Nathalie Cavallo '16 Stephanie Zou '16
Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	Carter Pemberton '16 Cj Mckenna '18 John Wetzel '16	Meg Wilson '16 Morgan Farber '16 Nellie Stidham '17
Milton Academy	Mustangs	Charles Hibben '18 Henry Burnes '17 Luke Monnich '21	Isabelle Alex '21 Jamie Fox '21 Emily Grace '16 Christina Sakellaris '17
Falmouth High School	Yachtsmen	Audrey Morin '17 Caleb Robinson '18 Cameron Rousseau '16	Peter Morrissette '18 Grace Mooridian '17 Sierra Farhman '18 Owen White '18
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Briggs Lalor '17 Christine Klingler '16 Nicholas Stefanoni '17 Tommy Whittemore '18	Carly Berry '17 Anne-Elizabeth Sidamon-Eristoff '16 Jack Chrysler '16 George Sidamon-Eristoff '17 Sophie Mason '17
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	Aidan Naughton '18 Delaney Bamford '16 Marina Barzaghi '17 Noah Simmons '16	Jaia Colongese '18 Will Andrews '17 Kevin Stamp '18 Ryan Soucy '18 Elsa Kincaid '18 Adeline Sutton '17
Sharon High School	Eagles	Jack Eberhardt '17 Larry Zmoira '16 Meghan Haviland '17 Pauljack Solomon '16	Lynn Fu '18 Alissa Chen '18 Colin Snow '18 Merrick Tian '18

Conditions — 05/21/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1018.6 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From SSW (201°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1018.6 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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