Milton Academy '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.47 (fleet 3.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 74–30 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 30–6 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 8–12 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 26–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 10–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (88 matches) the record is 64–24 against 56.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.95 | 3.87 | 4–2 | 3.2 | +0.92 | 0.4 | 40% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.81 | 4.10 | 16–4 | 12.6 | +1.28 | 2.3 | 7% |
| 2017-04-29 | Seawolf Invite | skipper | 2.76 | 5.76 | 10–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 7.8 | <1% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | skipper | 3.03 | 1.86 | 8–12 | 11.6 | −1.17 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 2.37 | 2.95 | 9–3 | 8.0 | +0.59 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | skipper | 2.37 | 2.91 | 17–3 | 15.9 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Seawolf Invite | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Marblehead, MA | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 3.30 |
| NESSA O'Day Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.9 | 2.48 |
| ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Racing Championship (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | A | 20 | 7.5 | 1.60 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 1.49 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.9 | 1.09 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 20 | 7.3 | 1.83 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | A | 20 | 4.3 | 2.34 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Henry Burnes |  Harvard University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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