NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy)

HostBowdoin College
Date05/20/2017
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. George's School	Dragons	18–2
2	Milton Academy	Mustangs	16–4
3	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	11–9
4	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	11–9
5	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	6–8
6	Falmouth High School	Yachtsmen	4–10
7	Boston College High School	Eagles	1–13
7	Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,532 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 62 of 68 matches (91%) with a log-loss of 0.379 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.80 ± 0.29: an orderly event, more orderly than 96% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. George's School Dragons	1	8.38 school +0.62	Matt Logue / Ben White 2.77 Gray Benson / Victoria Boatwright Truckie Greenhouse / Ellie Williams 2.84	82%	18–2 (90%)	+1.7
2	Milton Academy Mustangs	2	7.30 school −0.12	Henry Burnes / Jamie Fox 2.81 Luke Monnich / Hunter Zonnenberg 2.28 Charles Hibben / Isabelle Alex 2.30 10–4 Christina Sakellaris / Charles Hibben 6–0	63%	16–4 (80%)	+3.4
3	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	3	6.86 school +0.07	Briggs Lalor / Carly Berry 1.46 Nicholas Stefanoni / Christopher Lukens 2.45 Tommy Whittemore / George Sidamon-Eristoff 2.78	54%	11–9 (55%)	+0.2
4	Tabor Academy Seawolves	4	6.68	Chase Cooper / Tom Moore 2.38 Lulu Russell / Michael Collins 1.95 7–9 Cj Mckenna / Nick Marshall 2.38 6–6 Cj Mckenna / Cailyn Garber 2.25 5–3 Jack Howard / Michael Collins 2–0 Jack Howard / Kat Mitchell 2–0	51%	11–9 (55%)	+0.8
5	Greenwich High School Cardinals	5	5.72 school +0.11	James Westerberg / Louisa Bjerke 2.18 Jack Scanlan / Peter Dunay 1.48 Pierce Ornstein / Isabella Clemens 1.82 0–8 Pierce Ornstein / Isabella Arnaboldi 1.82 4–0 Pierce Ornstein / Jack Childs 1.92 2–0	42%	6–8 (43%)	+0.2
6	Falmouth High School Yachtsmen	6	5.70 school −0.32	Caleb Robinson / Grace Mooridian 2.30 Audrey Morin / Owen White 1.75 Peter Morrissette / Catherine Morrissette 1.93	41%	4–10 (29%)	−1.8
7	Boston College High School Eagles	7	4.96 school +0.36	Bell Jed / Brown Ian 1.46 Bedford Will / Mccrossan Rory 1.64 Graziano Nick / Moreira Simon 1.39	27%	1–13 (7%)	−2.8
7	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	8	4.42 school +0.20	Emily Bredin / Jackie Morrison 1.19 Max Guerriero / Kelly Milliken Patrick Rose / Grace Benzal 1.79	20%	1–13 (7%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Milton Academy	7.30	8.58	16–4	12.6	+1.28	2.3	7%
1	St. George's School	8.38	9.33	18–2	16.3	+0.96	0.8	25%
4	Tabor Academy	6.68	6.93	11–9	10.2	+0.25	0.1	44%
5	Greenwich High School	5.72	5.80	6–8	5.8	+0.08	0.0	57%
3	The Hotchkiss School	6.86	6.93	11–9	10.8	+0.07	0.0	56%
6	Falmouth High School	5.70	4.83	4–10	5.8	−0.87	0.8	92%
7	Portsmouth Abbey School	4.42	2.87	1–13	2.7	−1.56	1.3	96%
7	Boston College High School	4.96	2.71	1–13	3.8	−2.25	3.0	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Charles Hibben	Milton Academy	2.30	3.31	10–4	7.8	+1.01	1.2	16%
Truckie Greenhouse	St. George's School	2.84	3.80	18–2	16.3	+0.96	0.8	25%
Chase Cooper	Tabor Academy	2.38	2.63	11–9	10.2	+0.25	0.1	44%
James Westerberg	Greenwich High School	2.18	2.26	6–8	5.8	+0.08	0.0	57%
Jack Scanlan	Greenwich High School	1.48	1.55	6–8	5.8	+0.08	0.0	57%
Tommy Whittemore	The Hotchkiss School	2.78	2.85	11–9	10.8	+0.07	0.0	56%
Audrey Morin	Falmouth High School	1.75	0.88	4–10	5.8	−0.87	0.8	92%
Emily Bredin	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.19	-0.37	1–13	2.7	−1.56	1.3	96%
Patrick Rose	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.79	0.23	1–13	2.7	−1.56	1.3	96%
Bell Jed	Boston College High School	1.46	-0.79	1–13	3.8	−2.25	3.0	99%
Bedford Will	Boston College High School	1.64	-0.61	1–13	3.8	−2.25	3.0	99%
Graziano Nick	Boston College High School	1.39	-0.86	1–13	3.8	−2.25	3.0	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	The Hotchkiss School	Boston College High School	82%
1	2	Tabor Academy	Portsmouth Abbey School	86%
1	3	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	88%
1	4	Milton Academy	Falmouth High School	75%
1	5	Tabor Academy	Boston College High School	79%
1	6	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	76%
1	7	Falmouth High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	74%
1	8	Milton Academy	Greenwich High School	75%
1	9	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	78%
1	10	Falmouth High School	Boston College High School	64%
1	11	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich High School	71%
1	12	Milton Academy	Portsmouth Abbey School	90%
1	13	St. George's School	Falmouth High School	88%
1	14	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	62%
1	15	Boston College High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	61%
1	16	Milton Academy	The Hotchkiss School	60%
1	17	Greenwich High School	Falmouth High School	50%	upset
1	18	St. George's School	Portsmouth Abbey School	96%
1	19	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	51%
1	20	Milton Academy	Boston College High School	87%
1	21	Greenwich High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	73%
1	22	The Hotchkiss School	Falmouth High School	71%
1	23	St. George's School	Boston College High School	93%
1	24	Milton Academy	Tabor Academy	61%
1	25	The Hotchkiss School	Portsmouth Abbey School	87%
1	26	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	65%
1	27	Tabor Academy	Falmouth High School	63%
1	28	St. George's School	Milton Academy	69%
2	29	The Hotchkiss School	Boston College High School	81%
2	30	Tabor Academy	Portsmouth Abbey School	85%
2	31	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	89%
2	32	Milton Academy	Falmouth High School	75%
2	33	Tabor Academy	Boston College High School	79%
2	34	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	77%
2	35	Falmouth High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	72%
2	36	Milton Academy	Greenwich High School	75%
2	37	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	79%
2	38	Falmouth High School	Boston College High School	64%
2	39	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich High School	70%
2	40	Milton Academy	Portsmouth Abbey School	89%
2	41	St. George's School	Falmouth High School	89%
2	42	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	63%
2	43	Portsmouth Abbey School	Boston College High School	40%	upset
2	44	Milton Academy	The Hotchkiss School	60%
2	45	Greenwich High School	Falmouth High School	51%
2	46	St. George's School	Portsmouth Abbey School	95%
2	47	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	49%	upset
2	48	Milton Academy	Boston College High School	86%
2	49	Greenwich High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	73%
2	50	The Hotchkiss School	Falmouth High School	71%
2	51	St. George's School	Boston College High School	93%
2	52	Tabor Academy	Milton Academy	39%	upset
2	53	The Hotchkiss School	Portsmouth Abbey School	86%
2	54	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	65%
2	55	Tabor Academy	Falmouth High School	64%
2	56	Milton Academy	St. George's School	31%	upset
3	57	Milton Academy	Tabor Academy	61%
3	58	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	77%
3	59	Milton Academy	The Hotchkiss School	60%
3	60	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	79%
3	61	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	51%
3	62	St. George's School	Milton Academy	69%
4	63	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	51%
4	64	St. George's School	Milton Academy	69%
4	65	Tabor Academy	St. George's School	21%	upset
4	66	Milton Academy	The Hotchkiss School	60%
4	67	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	77%
4	68	Milton Academy	Tabor Academy	61%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
2	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Ravens	4-5-6
3	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6
4	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Yachtsmen	4-5-6
5	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
6	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
7	Yachtsmen	1-2-5	def.	Ravens	3-4-6
8	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinals	4-5-6
9	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
10	Yachtsmen	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
11	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Cardinals	1-5-6
12	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Ravens	3-5-6
13	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Yachtsmen	3-4-6
14	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Cardinals	4-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Ravens	3-4-6
16	Mustangs	1-2-4 DSQ	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
17	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Yachtsmen	4-5-6
18	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Ravens	2-4-6
19	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
20	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
21	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Ravens	3-5-6
22	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Yachtsmen	4-5-6
23	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
24	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
25	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Ravens	1-5-6
26	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
27	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Yachtsmen	3-5-6
28	Dragons	1-4-5	def.	Mustangs	2-3-6
29	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
30	Seawolves	1-4-5	def.	Ravens	2-3-6
31	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Cardinals	4-5-6
32	Mustangs	1-3-4	def.	Yachtsmen	2-5-6
33	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
34	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
35	Yachtsmen	1-2-4	def.	Ravens	3-5-6
36	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6 DSQ
37	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
38	Yachtsmen	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
39	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
40	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Ravens	4-5-6
41	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Yachtsmen	3-5-6
42	Seawolves	1-4-5	def.	Cardinals	2-3-6
43	Ravens	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
44	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Bearcats	1-5-6
45	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Yachtsmen	3-5-6
46	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Ravens	4-5-6
47	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
48	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
49	Cardinals	2-3-4	def.	Ravens	1-5-6
50	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Yachtsmen	3-5-6
51	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
52	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Mustangs	2-4-6
53	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Ravens	3-5-6
54	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
55	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Yachtsmen	3-5-6
56	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
57	Mustangs	2-3-5	def.	Seawolves	1-4-6
58	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
59	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
60	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
61	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
62	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
63	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
64	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
65	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6
66	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
67	Dragons	1-4-5	def.	Bearcats	2-3-6
68	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. George's School	Dragons	Gray Benson '18 Matt Logue '18 Truckie Greenhouse '17	Victoria Boatwright '17 Ben White '18 Ellie Williams '18
Milton Academy	Mustangs	Charles Hibben '18 Christina Sakellaris '17 Henry Burnes '17 Luke Monnich '21	Isabelle Alex '21 Charles Hibben '18 Jamie Fox '21 Hunter Zonnenberg '20
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Briggs Lalor '17 Nicholas Stefanoni '17 Tommy Whittemore '18	Carly Berry '17 Christopher Lukens '19 George Sidamon-Eristoff '17
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Chase Cooper '17 Cj Mckenna '18 Jack Howard '19 Lulu Russell '17	Tom Moore '17 Cailyn Garber '17 Nick Marshall '18 Michael Collins '18 Kat Mitchell '17
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Jack Scanlan '17 James Westerberg '17 Pierce Ornstein '18	Peter Dunay '17 Louisa Bjerke '18 Jack Childs '19 Isabella Clemens '18 Isabella Arnaboldi '17
Falmouth High School	Yachtsmen	Audrey Morin '17 Caleb Robinson '18 Peter Morrissette '18	Owen White '18 Grace Mooridian '17 Catherine Morrissette '20
Boston College High School	Eagles	Bedford Will '18 Bell Jed '18 Graziano Nick '19	Mccrossan Rory '17 Brown Ian '17 Moreira Simon '18
Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	Emily Bredin '17 Max Guerriero '17 Patrick Rose '17	Jackie Morrison '18 Kelly Milliken '17 Grace Benzal '17

Conditions — 05/20/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1024.8 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.2 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 20.2 kn

From NNW (333°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1024.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Bowdoin College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Bowdoin College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bowdoin College, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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