Portsmouth Abbey School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.97 (fleet 1.58) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–16 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–13 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 4–16 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 1.19 | -0.37 | 1–13 | 2.7 | −1.56 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.35 | -0.54 | 3–3 | 4.9 | −1.89 | 2.1 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.8 | -0.07 |
| NESSA Women's Champs (Herreshoff) | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 1.47 |
| NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Tabor | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.9 | 0.72 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NESSA Women's Championship (R Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 2.14 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier #2 - Duxbury | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 1.81 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Women's Champs (Herreshoff) | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.0 | 0.50 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier - MMA #2 | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.6 | 0.79 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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