NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy)

HostMIT
Date05/21/2016
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatFirefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	0–0
2	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	0–0
3	Boston College High School	Eagles	0–0
4	Moses Brown School	Quakers	0–0
5	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	0–0
6	Barnstable HS	Raiders	0–0
7	Bishop Stang High School	Spartans	0–0
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,164 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 68 matches (59%) with a log-loss of 0.662 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.77 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	1	6.70 school +0.43	Nicholas Gartner / Jackie Morrison 2.17 Patrick Rose / Grace Benzal Jessica Mcjones / Kelly Shea 12–2 Emily Bredin / Sydney Welch 3–3	83%	15–5 (75%)	−1.7
2	Greenwich High School Cardinals	2	5.56 school +0.12	James Westerberg / Will Macdonald 1.90 Jack Scanlan / Peter Dunay 1.35 Pierce Ornstein / Jack Childs	64%	13–7 (65%)	+0.3
3	Boston College High School Eagles	6	4.16	Bell Jed / Flaherty Diarmuid Bedford Will / Mccrossan Rory Graziano Nick / Moreira Simon	36%	11–9 (55%)	+3.7
4	Moses Brown School Quakers	5	4.43	Tom Harden / Josh Stone Adrian Van Der Wal / Cecily Adler Colin Swen / Hannah Kinder	41%	10–10 (50%)	+1.9
5	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	8	3.75	Brooke Shachoy / Lidia Goldberg Frankie Doyle / Ryan Guan Michael Lacava / Tak Hogan	33%	7–7 (50%)	+2.4
6	Barnstable HS Raiders	4	4.29	Annie Spence / Lilly Mathieu Matt Hersey / Mikayla Mathieu Christopher Adams / Liz Silva	44%	7–7 (50%)	+0.9
7	Bishop Stang High School Spartans	7	3.86 school −0.15	Madeline Pope / Arianna Smaldone 1.69 Victoria Pajak / Elizabeth Lonergan Santiago Hirschman / Joseph Russo	35%	4–10 (29%)	−1.0
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	3	4.74 school +0.51	Zach Bresnik / Sayln Yancey Adam Bilodeau / Elizabeth O'Brien Mary Morano / Coltrane Leport	54%	1–13 (7%)	−6.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Boston College High School	4.16	5.23	11–9	7.3	+1.07	2.2	6%
5	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	3.75	4.75	7–7	4.6	+1.00	1.4	13%
4	Moses Brown School	4.43	4.99	10–10	8.1	+0.56	0.6	25%
6	Barnstable HS	4.29	4.66	7–7	6.1	+0.37	0.2	41%
2	Greenwich High School	5.56	5.66	13–7	12.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
7	Bishop Stang High School	3.86	3.42	4–10	5.0	−0.44	0.2	80%
1	Portsmouth Abbey School	6.70	6.02	15–5	16.7	−0.68	0.7	90%
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS	4.74	1.07	1–13	7.5	−3.67	10.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Bell Jed	Boston College High School	0.96	2.02	11–9	7.3	+1.07	2.2	6%
Bedford Will	Boston College High School	1.28	2.35	11–9	7.3	+1.07	2.2	6%
Graziano Nick	Boston College High School	1.11	2.18	11–9	7.3	+1.07	2.2	6%
Frankie Doyle	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	1.20	2.20	7–7	4.6	+1.00	1.4	13%
Michael Lacava	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	0.22	1.22	7–7	4.6	+1.00	1.4	13%
Tom Harden	Moses Brown School	1.50	2.06	10–10	8.1	+0.56	0.6	25%
Adrian Van Der Wal	Moses Brown School	1.68	2.24	10–10	8.1	+0.56	0.6	25%
Colin Swen	Moses Brown School	0.43	0.99	10–10	8.1	+0.56	0.6	25%
Annie Spence	Barnstable HS	1.46	1.83	7–7	6.1	+0.37	0.2	41%
Christopher Adams	Barnstable HS	0.57	0.95	7–7	6.1	+0.37	0.2	41%
James Westerberg	Greenwich High School	1.90	1.99	13–7	12.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
Jack Scanlan	Greenwich High School	1.35	1.45	13–7	12.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
Santiago Hirschman	Bishop Stang High School	0.75	0.31	4–10	5.0	−0.44	0.2	80%
Patrick Rose	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.87	1.19	15–5	16.7	−0.68	0.7	90%
Emily Bredin	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.35	-0.54	3–3	4.9	−1.89	2.1	99%
Zach Bresnik	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.21	-2.45	1–13	7.5	−3.67	10.9	>99%
Adam Bilodeau	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.15	-2.51	1–13	7.5	−3.67	10.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Barnstable HS	Bishop Stang High School	55%
1	2	Greenwich High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	82%
1	3	Moses Brown School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	38%	upset
1	4	Portsmouth Abbey School	Boston College High School	87%
1	5	Barnstable HS	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	60%
1	6	Moses Brown School	Bishop Stang High School	57%
1	7	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	77%
1	8	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Portsmouth Abbey School	23%	upset
1	9	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Moses Brown School	39%	upset
1	10	Boston College High School	Barnstable HS	45%	upset
1	11	Bishop Stang High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	34%	upset
1	12	Portsmouth Abbey School	Greenwich High School	74%
1	13	Moses Brown School	Boston College High School	55%
1	14	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Marthas Vineyard RHS	31%	upset
1	15	Greenwich High School	Barnstable HS	72%
1	16	Portsmouth Abbey School	Bishop Stang High School	91%
1	17	Boston College High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	37%	upset
1	18	Greenwich High School	Moses Brown School	72%
1	19	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Bishop Stang High School	48%	upset
1	20	Barnstable HS	Portsmouth Abbey School	12%	upset
1	21	Greenwich High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	64%
1	22	Bishop Stang High School	Boston College High School	46%	upset
1	23	Moses Brown School	Barnstable HS	50%
1	24	Portsmouth Abbey School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	92%
1	25	Greenwich High School	Bishop Stang High School	78%
1	26	Barnstable HS	Marthas Vineyard RHS	42%	upset
1	27	Boston College High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	56%
1	28	Portsmouth Abbey School	Moses Brown School	88%
2	29	Barnstable HS	Bishop Stang High School	59%
2	30	Greenwich High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	79%
2	31	Moses Brown School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	42%	upset
2	32	Portsmouth Abbey School	Boston College High School	83%
2	33	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Barnstable HS	40%	upset
2	34	Bishop Stang High School	Moses Brown School	41%	upset
2	35	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	75%
2	36	Portsmouth Abbey School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	75%
2	37	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Moses Brown School	39%	upset
2	38	Boston College High School	Barnstable HS	45%	upset
2	39	Bishop Stang High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	34%	upset
2	40	Portsmouth Abbey School	Greenwich High School	74%
2	41	Moses Brown School	Boston College High School	55%
2	42	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Marthas Vineyard RHS	33%	upset
2	43	Barnstable HS	Greenwich High School	30%	upset
2	44	Portsmouth Abbey School	Bishop Stang High School	91%
2	45	Boston College High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	38%	upset
2	46	Moses Brown School	Greenwich High School	30%	upset
2	47	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Bishop Stang High School	49%	upset
2	48	Portsmouth Abbey School	Barnstable HS	87%
2	49	Greenwich High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	64%
2	50	Boston College High School	Bishop Stang High School	55%
2	51	Moses Brown School	Barnstable HS	50%
2	52	Portsmouth Abbey School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	91%
2	53	Greenwich High School	Bishop Stang High School	78%
2	54	Barnstable HS	Marthas Vineyard RHS	43%	upset
2	55	Boston College High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	56%
2	56	Portsmouth Abbey School	Moses Brown School	87%
3	57	Greenwich High School	Moses Brown School	70%
3	58	Boston College High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	18%	upset
3	59	Boston College High School	Greenwich High School	26%	upset
3	60	Portsmouth Abbey School	Moses Brown School	86%
3	61	Moses Brown School	Boston College High School	55%
3	62	Portsmouth Abbey School	Greenwich High School	74%
4	63	Greenwich High School	Moses Brown School	69%
4	64	Boston College High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	18%	upset
4	65	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	74%
4	66	Moses Brown School	Portsmouth Abbey School	14%	upset
4	67	Boston College High School	Moses Brown School	45%	upset
4	68	Portsmouth Abbey School	Greenwich High School	74%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
2	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Knights	3-4-6
3	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Vineyarders	3-5-6
4	Ravens	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
5	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Knights	1-4-6
6	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Spartans	3-4-5
7	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
8	Vineyarders	2-3-4	def.	Ravens	1-5-6
9	Knights	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
10	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
11	Spartans	1-2-4	def.	Vineyarders	3-5-6
12	Ravens	2-4-6	def.	Cardinals	1-3-5 DSQ
13	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
14	Knights	1-2-5	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-6
15	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
16	Ravens	2-3-5	def.	Spartans	1-4-6
17	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Vineyarders	4-5-6
18	Cardinals	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
19	Knights	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
20	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Ravens	1-4-6
21	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-6
22	Spartans	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
23	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
24	Ravens	2-3-4	def.	Knights	1-5-6
25	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Spartans	3-5-6
26	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Vineyarders	4-5-6
27	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Knights	1-5-6
28	Ravens	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
29	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Spartans	1-4-6
30	Cardinals	1-3-4	def.	Knights	2-5-6
31	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Vineyarders	4-5-6
32	Ravens	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
33	Knights	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
34	Spartans	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
35	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
36	Ravens	1-3-5	def.	Vineyarders	2-4-6
37	Knights	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
38	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
39	Spartans	1-2-5	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-6
40	Ravens	3-4-6	def.	Cardinals	1-2-5 DSQ
41	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
42	Knights	1-2-5	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-6
43	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
44	Ravens	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Vineyarders	4-5-6
46	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Cardinals	2-4-6 DSQ
47	Knights	1-3-6	def.	Spartans	2-4-5
48	Ravens	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
49	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Vineyarders	3-5-6
50	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Spartans	2-4-6
51	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
52	Ravens	1-4-5	def.	Knights	2-3-6
53	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
54	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Vineyarders	3-5-6
55	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Knights	3-4-6
56	Ravens	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
57	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
58	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Ravens	3-4-5
59	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cardinals	1-5-6
60	Ravens	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
61	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
62	Ravens	1-4-5	def.	Cardinals	2-3-6 DSQ
63	Cardinals	2-3-6	def.	Quakers	1-4-5 DSQ
64	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Ravens	2-3-6
65	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
66	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Ravens	2-3-6
67	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
68	Ravens	2-3-4	def.	Cardinals	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	Emily Bredin '17 Jessica Mcjones '16 Nicholas Gartner '16 Patrick Rose '17	Sydney Welch '16 Kelly Shea '16 Jackie Morrison '18 Grace Benzal '17
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Jack Scanlan '17 James Westerberg '17 Pierce Ornstein '18	Peter Dunay '17 Will Macdonald '19 Jack Childs '19
Boston College High School	Eagles	Bedford Will '18 Bell Jed '18 Graziano Nick '19	Mccrossan Rory '17 Flaherty Diarmuid '16 Moreira Simon '18
Moses Brown School	Quakers	Adrian Van Der Wal '17 Colin Swen '16 Tom Harden '16	Cecily Adler '16 Hannah Kinder '17 Josh Stone '16
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	Brooke Shachoy '18 Frankie Doyle '18 Michael Lacava '16	Lidia Goldberg '18 Ryan Guan '17 Tak Hogan '16
Barnstable HS	Raiders	Annie Spence '16 Christopher Adams '19 Matt Hersey '18	Lilly Mathieu '19 Liz Silva '16 Mikayla Mathieu '18
Bishop Stang High School	Spartans	Madeline Pope '17 Santiago Hirschman '18 Victoria Pajak '17	Arianna Smaldone '16 Joseph Russo '18 Elizabeth Lonergan '16
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	Adam Bilodeau '16 Mary Morano '17 Zach Bresnik '16	Elizabeth O'Brien '18 Coltrane Leport '18 Sayln Yancey '18

Conditions — 05/21/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1018.6 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From SSW (201°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1018.6 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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