Boston College High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.24 (fleet 1.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–40 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 33–18 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–13 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 11–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (85 matches) the record is 45–40 against 41.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | 2018 NIT Team Racing Regatta | skipper | 1.42 | 1.24 | 14–13 | 14.8 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.43 | 2.58 | 16–4 | 12.6 | +1.16 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 2018-05-05 | Cheverus Team Race | skipper | 1.34 | 0.66 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.68 | 0.1 | 89% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 1.64 | -0.61 | 1–13 | 3.8 | −2.25 | 3.0 | 99% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.28 | 2.35 | 11–9 | 7.3 | +1.07 | 2.2 | 6% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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