| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Brunswick School | Jack Parkin '17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 31 |
 |
St. George's School | Alex Fasolo '18 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 36 |
 |
The Hotchkiss School | Nicholas Stefanoni '17 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 52 |
 |
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | Frankie Doyle '18 | 13 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 59 |
 |
Falmouth High School (ME) | Caleb Robinson '18 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 69 |
 |
Belmont Hill School | Jack Murphy '18 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 74 |
 |
Fairfield Prep | Jamie Paul '20 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 74 |
|
Brunswick School | Leyton Borcherding '21 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 89 |
|
Falmouth High School (ME) | Peter Morrissette '18 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 101 |
|
The Hotchkiss School | John Eastman '20 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 7 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 111 |
 |
North Kingstown High School | Marina Barzaghi '17 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 114 |
 |
Moses Brown School | Adrian Van Der Wal '17 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 21 | 14 | 21 | 7 | 121 |
 |
Duxbury High School | Piers Klein '18 | 11 | 11 | DNS | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 133 |
|
North Kingstown High School | Aili Moffett '19 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 8 | 23 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 8 | 135 |
 |
Sacred Heart Greenwich | Sloane Kratzman '23 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 142 |
|
Moses Brown School | Alexander Runci '19 | DNF | 22 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 145 |
 |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Patrick Miller '19 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 20 | 14 | 164 |
 |
Staples High School | Max Haslett '19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 21 | 169 |
 |
Greenwich High School | Jack Childs '19 | 21 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 175 |
|
Staples High School | David Adipietro '19 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 14 | 19 | 22 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 183 |
 |
Portland High School | Hal Clews '19 | 22 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 23 | 12 | 23 | 13 | 19 | 22 | 191 |
 |
Greenwich Academy | Caitlin Owles '19 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 202 |
 |
Stamford High School | Garrick Leclue '18 | 18 | DNS | 21 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 15 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 214 |
 |
Bishop Stang High | Joseph Russo '18 | DNF | DNS | DNS | 23 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 18 | 24 | 23 | 237 |
 |
Boston College High School | Bedford Will '18 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 270 |
 |
Milton Academy | Christina Sakellaris '17 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 270 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Parkin '17 | Brunswick School Bruins 1 | 10/10 | 3.06 | 4.31 | +1.25 | 99th → 99th | 4.2 | 3% | 3.1 / 8.2 |
| 2 | Alex Fasolo '18 | St. George's School | 10/10 | 2.53 | 4.16 | +1.62 | 92nd → 99th | 7.0 | 2% | 3.6 / 9.9 |
| 3 | Nicholas Stefanoni '17 | The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 1 | 10/10 | 1.97 | 3.27 | +1.30 | 83rd → 99th | 4.9 | 3% | 5.2 / 12.0 |
| 4 | Frankie Doyle '18 | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | 10/10 | 1.43 | 3.00 | +1.58 | 71st → 98th | 7.1 | 2% | 5.9 / 13.9 |
| 5 | Caleb Robinson '18 | Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 2 | 10/10 | 2.42 | 2.77 | +0.35 | 91st → 96th | 0.4 | 18% | 6.9 / 10.4 |
| 6 | Jack Murphy '18 | Belmont Hill School | 10/10 | 1.99 | 2.73 | +0.74 | 83rd → 95th | 1.9 | 13% | 7.4 / 11.8 |
| 6 | Jamie Paul '20 | Fairfield Prep | 10/10 | 1.87 | 2.41 | +0.55 | 81st → 91st | 1.0 | 10% | 7.4 / 12.4 |
| 8 | Leyton Borcherding '21 | Brunswick School Bruins 2 | 10/10 | 1.64 | 2.37 | +0.73 | 76th → 89th | 1.8 | 8% | 8.9 / 13.3 |
| 9 | Peter Morrissette '18 | Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 1 | 10/10 | 1.79 | 2.07 | +0.28 | 80th → 84th | 0.3 | 28% | 10.1 / 12.6 |
| 10 | John Eastman '20 | The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 2 | 10/10 | 1.81 | 1.52 | −0.29 | 80th → 74th | 0.3 | 37% | 11.1 / 12.5 |
| 11 | Marina Barzaghi '17 | North Kingstown High School Skippers 2 | 10/10 | 1.97 | 1.83 | −0.15 | 83rd → 81st | 0.1 | 46% | 11.4 / 12.0 |
| 12 | Adrian Van Der Wal '17 | Moses Brown School Quakers 2 | 10/10 | 1.91 | 1.45 | −0.46 | 82nd → 71st | 0.9 | 52% | 12.1 / 12.1 |
| 13 | Piers Klein '18 | Duxbury High School | 10/10 | 2.03 | 1.87 | −0.16 | 83rd → 81st | 0.1 | 68% | 13.3 / 11.7 |
| 14 | Aili Moffett '19 | North Kingstown High School Skippers 1 | 10/10 | 1.52 | 1.15 | −0.37 | 74th → 63rd | 0.6 | 51% | 13.5 / 13.6 |
| 15 | Sloane Kratzman '23 | Sacred Heart Greenwich | 10/10 | 1.18u | 1.29 | +0.10 | 65th → 67th | 0.0 | 44% | 14.2 / 14.8 |
| 16 | Alexander Runci '19 | Moses Brown School Quakers 1 | 10/10 | 0.72 | 1.00 | +0.28 | 46th → 58th | 0.2 | 31% | 14.5 / 16.4 |
| 17 | Patrick Miller '19 | Cape Elizabeth High School | 10/10 | 0.98 | 0.75 | −0.24 | 57th → 48th | 0.2 | 58% | 16.4 / 15.6 |
| 18 | Max Haslett '19 | Staples High School Varsity 2 | 10/10 | 0.99 | 0.75 | −0.24 | 58th → 48th | 0.3 | 63% | 16.9 / 15.5 |
| 19 | Jack Childs '19 | Greenwich High School | 10/10 | 0.98 | 0.76 | −0.22 | 57th → 48th | 0.2 | 67% | 17.5 / 15.7 |
| 20 | David Adipietro '19 | Staples High School Varsity 1 | 10/10 | 0.85 | 0.59 | −0.26 | 52nd → 42nd | 0.3 | 70% | 18.3 / 16.1 |
| 21 | Hal Clews '19 | Portland High School | 10/10 | 0.96 | 0.04 | −0.92 | 57th → 23rd | 3.7 | 80% | 19.1 / 15.6 |
| 22 | Caitlin Owles '19 | Greenwich Academy | 10/10 | 0.51 | -0.31 | −0.82 | 39th → 15th | 2.6 | 79% | 20.2 / 17.1 |
| 23 | Garrick Leclue '18 | Stamford High School | 10/10 | -0.03 | -0.32 | −0.29 | 21st → 15th | 0.3 | 74% | 21.4 / 19.0 |
| 24 | Joseph Russo '18 | Bishop Stang High | 10/10 | 0.62 | -1.05 | −1.67 | 43rd → 4th | 6.8 | 98% | 23.7 / 16.8 |
| 25 | Bedford Will '18 | Boston College High School | 10/10 | 1.48 | — | — | 72nd → — | 0.0 | >99% | 27.0 / 13.6 |
| 25 | Christina Sakellaris '17 | Milton Academy | 10/10 | 3.01 | — | — | 98th → — | 0.0 | >99% | 27.0 / 8.2 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
