NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy)

HostTabor Academy
Date04/22/2018
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatZ420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	37	20	57
2	Barrington High School	Eagles	32	45	77
3	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	34	43	77
4	St. George's School	Dragons	44	50	94
5	Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	53	46	99
6	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	59	58	117
7	Brunswick School	Bruins	67	57	124
8	Portsmouth High School RI	Partriots	58	70	128
9	Milton Academy	Mustangs	47	82	129
10	Barnstable HS	Raiders	86	58	144
11	Greenwich Academy	Gator	86	62	148
12	Dartmouth High School	Indians	77	74	151
13	Marblehead High School	Magicians	85	74	159
14	Boston College High School	Eagles	76	85	161
15	Newton Country Day School	Falcons	80	84	164
16	Belmont Hill School	Varsity	72	93	165
17	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	95	75	170

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Barrington High School	Eagles	5	8	1	2	3	4	9	32	Riley Kloc '18 Kaleigh Morgan '19
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	17	5	2	4	4	1	1	34	Tommy Whittemore '18 Elizabeth Koobatian '19
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	2	3	5	9	2	9	7	37	Cj Mckenna '18 Nick Marshall '18
St. George's School	Dragons	1	1	12	1	9	6	14	44	Matt Logue '18 [1-7] Ben White '18 [1-4, 7] Ellie Williams '18 [5-6]
Milton Academy	Mustangs	3	6	8	OCS	5	3	4	47	Charles Hibben '18 Isabelle Alex '21
Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	4	17	3	OCS	6	2	3	53	Caleb Robinson '18 Alex Mazelsky '20
Portsmouth High School RI	Partriots	10	9	9	6	1	DSQ	5	58	Parker Colantuono '18 Sophia Hacket '21
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	13	2	4	OCS	15	5	2	59	Brooke Shachoy '18 Lidia Goldberg '18
Brunswick School	Bruins	9	13	7	10	13	7	8	67	William Michels '21 Alex Ohls '24
Belmont Hill School	Varsity	14	11	14	3	8	10	12	72	Jack Murphy '18 Ryan Goldstein '18
Boston College High School	Eagles	7	4	10	5	17	15	OCS	76	Bell Jed '18 [1-7] Moreira Simon '18 [1-4] Buckeridge Tyler '19 [5-7]
Dartmouth High School	Indians	11	7	6	OCS	14	8	13	77	Thomas Walker '20 Ben Will '18
Newton Country Day School	Falcons	8	15	13	7	16	11	10	80	Emma Montgomery '18 Jamie Page '19
Marblehead High School	Magicians	6	10	15	12	10	14	OCS	85	Grant Adam '19 Sam Bradley '19
Greenwich Academy	Gator	15	14	11	11	11	13	11	86	Ashton Borcherding '18 [1-7] Sofia Debs '24 [1-4] Alina Pannone '18 [5-7]
Barnstable HS	Raiders	16	16	16	8	12	12	6	86	John Cilizzi '19 [1-2] Taylor Eastman '20 [3-7] Chuck Nystrom '19 [1-2] Lilly Mathieu '19 [3-7]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	12	12	17	13	7	16	OCS	95	Jonathan Mears '18 Tory Miletti '18

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	1	3	2	1	4	5	4	20	Jack Howard '19 Michael Collins '18
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	13	8	7	3	7	3	2	43	Christopher Lukens '19 Gwyneth Howell '20
Barrington High School	Eagles	5	9	8	6	8	4	5	45	Charles Kreuzkamp '20 [1-4] Josh Dillon '21 [5-7] Joseph Wicker '20 [1-4] Drew Dillon '19 [5-7]
Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	10	11	4	2	2	2	15	46	Peter Morrissette '18 Emma Cole '21
St. George's School	Dragons	9	1	9	7	14	1	9	50	John Kirkpatrick '18 Wyatt Fogg '19
Brunswick School	Bruins	15	15	5	4	3	9	6	57	Leyton Borcherding '21 Christian Ohlemeyer '23
Barnstable HS	Raiders	3	14	16	10	1	13	1	58	Caroline Martone '18 [1-2] Joshua Hersey '20 [3-7] Caroline Lewis '20 [1-2] Mikayla Mathieu '18 [3-7]
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	12	2	15	9	6	6	8	58	Frankie Doyle '18 Zoe Ting '18
Greenwich Academy	Gator	2	5	10	11	17	7	10	62	Sofia Debs '24 Honour Russell '23
Portsmouth High School RI	Partriots	7	4	14	14	9	10	12	70	Joe Gallagher '20 Matt Bardonaro '19
Marblehead High School	Magicians	4	16	11	5	13	12	13	74	Islay Van Dusen '18 [1-4] Eric O'Connor '19 [5-7] Anna O'Connor '20 [1-4] Ryan Hamilton '19 [5-7]
Dartmouth High School	Indians	11	10	12	15	11	8	7	74	Gracie Woodcock '19 Sadie Thomas '19
Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	16	13	6	8	5	11	16	75	Elizabeth Cutler '20 [1-2] Everett Nash '19 [3-7] Jack Wallace '19 [1-2]
Milton Academy	Mustangs	DSQ	6	1	12	10	OCS	17	82	Hunter Zonnenberg '20 [1-6] Jamie Fox '21 [7] Julia O'Connor '20 [1-6] Ben Monnich '20 [7]
Newton Country Day School	Falcons	14	7	17	13	12	OCS	3	84	Katelyn Mcgauley '20 Kaitlyn Bradshaw '19
Boston College High School	Eagles	6	DSQ	3	17	16	14	11	85	Bedford Will '18 [1-6] Graziano Nick '19 [7] Graziano Nick '19 [1-6] Bedford Will '18 [7]
Belmont Hill School	Varsity	8	12	13	16	15	15	14	93	Michael Wade '19 [1-6] Ryan Goldstein '18 [7] Peter Wade '19 [1-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Barnstable HS Raiders	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Barrington High School Eagles	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Belmont Hill School Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Boston College High School Eagles	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Brunswick School Bruins	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Dartmouth High School Indians	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Greenwich Academy Gator	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Marblehead High School Magicians	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Milton Academy Mustangs	12	12	14	14	16	16	1
Newton Country Day School Falcons	13	13	15	15	17	17	2
Portsmouth High School RI Partriots	14	14	16	16	1	1	3
St. George's School Dragons	15	15	17	17	2	2	4
Tabor Academy Seawolves	16	16	1	1	3	3	5
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	17	17	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Barnstable HS Raiders	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Barrington High School Eagles	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Belmont Hill School Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Boston College High School Eagles	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Brunswick School Bruins	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Dartmouth High School Indians	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Greenwich Academy Gator	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Marblehead High School Magicians	12	12	14	14	16	16	1
Milton Academy Mustangs	13	13	15	15	17	17	2
Newton Country Day School Falcons	14	14	16	16	1	1	3
Portsmouth High School RI Partriots	15	15	17	17	2	2	4
St. George's School Dragons	16	16	1	1	3	3	5
Tabor Academy Seawolves	17	17	2	2	4	4	6
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Brooke Shachoy '18	Lidia Goldberg '18
Knights	Frankie Doyle '18	Zoe Ting '18
Barnstable HS	John Cilizzi '19 [1-2] Taylor Eastman '20 [3-7]	Chuck Nystrom '19 [1-2] Lilly Mathieu '19 [3-7]
Raiders	Caroline Martone '18 [1-2] Joshua Hersey '20 [3-7]	Caroline Lewis '20 [1-2] Mikayla Mathieu '18 [3-7]
Barrington High School	Riley Kloc '18	Kaleigh Morgan '19
Eagles	Charles Kreuzkamp '20 [1-4] Josh Dillon '21 [5-7]	Joseph Wicker '20 [1-4] Drew Dillon '19 [5-7]
Belmont Hill School	Jack Murphy '18	Ryan Goldstein '18
Varsity	Michael Wade '19 [1-6] Ryan Goldstein '18 [7]	Peter Wade '19 [1-6]
Boston College High School	Bell Jed '18 [1-7]	Moreira Simon '18 [1-4] Buckeridge Tyler '19 [5-7]
Eagles	Bedford Will '18 [1-6] Graziano Nick '19 [7]	Graziano Nick '19 [1-6] Bedford Will '18 [7]
Brunswick School	William Michels '21	Alex Ohls '24
Bruins	Leyton Borcherding '21	Christian Ohlemeyer '23
Dartmouth High School	Thomas Walker '20	Ben Will '18
Indians	Gracie Woodcock '19	Sadie Thomas '19
Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Jonathan Mears '18	Tory Miletti '18
Falcons	Elizabeth Cutler '20 [1-2] Everett Nash '19 [3-7]	Jack Wallace '19 [1-2]
Falmouth High School (ME)	Caleb Robinson '18	Alex Mazelsky '20
Yachtsmen	Peter Morrissette '18	Emma Cole '21
Greenwich Academy	Ashton Borcherding '18 [1-7]	Sofia Debs '24 [1-4] Alina Pannone '18 [5-7]
Gator	Sofia Debs '24	Honour Russell '23
Marblehead High School	Grant Adam '19	Sam Bradley '19
Magicians	Islay Van Dusen '18 [1-4] Eric O'Connor '19 [5-7]	Anna O'Connor '20 [1-4] Ryan Hamilton '19 [5-7]
Milton Academy	Charles Hibben '18	Isabelle Alex '21
Mustangs	Hunter Zonnenberg '20 [1-6] Jamie Fox '21 [7]	Julia O'Connor '20 [1-6] Ben Monnich '20 [7]
Newton Country Day School	Emma Montgomery '18	Jamie Page '19
Falcons	Katelyn Mcgauley '20	Kaitlyn Bradshaw '19
Portsmouth High School RI	Parker Colantuono '18	Sophia Hacket '21
Partriots	Joe Gallagher '20	Matt Bardonaro '19
St. George's School	Matt Logue '18 [1-7]	Ben White '18 [1-4, 7] Ellie Williams '18 [5-6]
Dragons	John Kirkpatrick '18	Wyatt Fogg '19
Tabor Academy	Cj Mckenna '18	Nick Marshall '18
Seawolves	Jack Howard '19	Michael Collins '18
The Hotchkiss School	Tommy Whittemore '18	Elizabeth Koobatian '19
Bearcats	Christopher Lukens '19	Gwyneth Howell '20

Conditions — 04/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1027.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 10.6 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From W (260°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1027.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Tabor Academy: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.13

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.60 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tabor Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Tabor Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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