Tabor Academy '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 (fleet 3.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 65–25 (72%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 22–12 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 29–11 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 14–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (90 matches) the record is 65–25 against 54.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+10.5). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.41 | 3.45 | 8–6 | 5.8 | +1.05 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.24 | 2.14 | 14–6 | 14.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.54 | 2.20 | 6–8 | 6.8 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.38 | 3.73 | 17–3 | 13.9 | +1.34 | 2.2 | 8% |
| 2018-04-07 | Ridge White Classic | skipper | 1.85 | 4.85 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.64 | 3.87 | 10–2 | 5.8 | +2.23 | 4.8 | 1% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 1.55 | 4.55 | 4–0 | 2.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jack Howard |  College of Charleston |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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