O'Day Qualifier - Newport, RI

HostIda Lewis YC/ St. George's School
Date04/21/2018
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatZ420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	St. George's School	Dragons	19	18	37
2	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	25	22	47
3	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	17	35	52
4	Barrington High School	Eagles	30	29	59
5	Barnstable HS	Raiders	38	44	82
6	Newton Country Day School	Falcons	53	38	91
7	Wellesley High School	Raiders	40	52	92
8	Newton North High School	Tigers	51	45	96
9	Moses Brown School	Quakers	51	49	100
10	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	47	55	102
11	Bishop Stang High	Spartans	58	60	118
12	Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	60	60	120
13	Dover Sherborn RHS	Radiers	75	55	130
14	The Williams School	Blues	72	84	156
15	Sandwich High School	Blue Knights	97	87	184
16	Boston Latin School	Wolfpack	96	89	185
17	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	109 MRP	117 MRP	226 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	5	6	1	1	3	1	17	Tommy Whittemore '18 Elizabeth Koobatian '19
St. George's School	Dragons	4	1	4	4	2	4	19	Matt Logue '18 [1-4] Gray Benson '18 [5-6] Ben White '18 [1-4] Colin Macgillivray '19 [5-6]
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	3	7	2	3	8	2	25	Cj Mckenna '18 Nick Marshall '18
Barrington High School	Eagles	1	10	5	2	7	5	30	Riley Kloc '18 Kaleigh Morgan '19
Barnstable HS	Raiders	10	12	3	5	5	3	38	Taylor Eastman '20 Lilly Mathieu '19
Wellesley High School	Raiders	6	5	9	12	1	7	40	Owen Ward '18 Zane Salameh '18
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	2	2	13	6	11	13	47	Joe Serpa '20 Elizabeth O'Brien '18
Moses Brown School	Quakers	11	13	6	9	4	8	51	Henry Lee '20 [1-4] Alexander Runci '19 [5-6] Niku Angier '19 [1-2] Francie Elliot '18 [3-4] Maddy Kerr '19 [5-6]
Newton North High School	Tigers	13	4	12	7	6	9	51	Nolan Cooper '20 Natalie Elder '20
Newton Country Day School	Falcons	8	3	15	8	9	10	53	Emma Montgomery '18 Jamie Page '19
Bishop Stang High	Spartans	7	9	11	10	10	11	58	Clinton Hegarty '19 Joseph Russo '18
Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	14	8	7	13	12	6	60	Evan Boyd '19 [1-2] Jack Fisher '20 [3-6] Ceci Bohan '20 [1-2] Aidan Brown '20 [3-6]
The Williams School	Blues	12	14	10	11	13	12	72	Alex Bowdler '18 [1-2] Colin Madaus '18 [3-6] Tim Nessel '18 [1-2] Elizabeth Li '21 [3-4] Jordy Plisic '19 [5-6]
Dover Sherborn RHS	Radiers	9	11	8	14	17	16	75	Eli Gleason '20 [1-4] Brooks Jordan '20 [5-6] Fay Hannah '19 [1-4] Lydia Austin '20 [5-6]
Boston Latin School	Wolfpack	17	17	16	17	14	15	96	Adam Grant '22 Daniel Shpigel '21
Sandwich High School	Blue Knights	16	16	17	15	16	17	97	Thomas Greeley '19 Ali Senior '20
East Greenwich High School	Avengers	15	15	14	16	15	14	109 MRP	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
St. George's School	Dragons	3	1	5	4	1	4	18	John Kirkpatrick '18 [1-4] Ted Bjerregaard '18 [5-6] Wyatt Fogg '19 [1-4]
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	4	6	6	3	2	1	22	Jack Howard '19 Michael Collins '18
Barrington High School	Eagles	2	2	2	2	13	8	29	Charles Kreuzkamp '20 Joseph Wicker '20
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	1	3	1	1	OCS	11	35	Christopher Lukens '19 [1-4] Oliver Hurwitz '21 [5-6] Gwyneth Howell '20 [1-4] Casey Mason '19 [5-6]
Newton Country Day School	Falcons	5	4	3	15	5	6	38	Katelyn Mcgauley '20 Kaitlyn Bradshaw '19
Barnstable HS	Raiders	12	11	7	9	3	2	44	Joshua Hersey '20 Mikayla Mathieu '18
Newton North High School	Tigers	6	10	4	6	7	12	45	Ryan Park '17 [1-6] Ethan Gahm '19 [1-2] Lauren Elder '21 [3-6]
Moses Brown School	Quakers	8	15	8	7	4	7	49	Aili Moffet '19 [1-6] Skyler Sullivan '18 [1-4] Niku Angier '19 [5-6]
Wellesley High School	Raiders	7	7	9	10	10	9	52	Hailey Feinzig '18 [1-6] Elizabeth Harrington '18 [1-2] Maia Grissino '20 [3-6]
Dover Sherborn RHS	Radiers	10	9	12	12	9	3	55	Christopher Cone '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Green '20 [3-4] Sierra Devine '22 [1-2, 5-6] Andrew Fiore '19 [3-4]
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	14	8	10	5	8	10	55	Patrick Flahrety '20 [1-2] Coltrane Leport '18 [3-6] Coltrane Leport '18 [1-2] Menasha Leport '21 [3-4] Christian Schmidt '19 [5-6]
Bishop Stang High	Spartans	9	5	11	8	12	15	60	Santiago Hirschmann '18 Edward Sparrow '18
Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	11	12	13	13	6	5	60	Faith Cournoyer '19 [1-2] Gabe Sotomayor '18 [3-6] Jackie Morrison '18 [1-2]
The Williams School	Blues	15	13	17	14	11	14	84	Caelan Desmond '20 [1-2, 5-6] Mary Madaus '21 [3-4] Brenna Henley '20 [1-2] Samantha Karlson '21 [3-4] Tim Nessel '18 [5-6]
Sandwich High School	Blue Knights	13	16	15	16	14	13	87	Max Hart '19 Justin Higgins '20
Boston Latin School	Wolfpack	16	14	16	11	16	16	89	Lucas Caron '20 [1-2, 5-6] Dominic Orlando '22 [3-4] Nathaniel O'Brien '19 [1-2, 5-6]
East Greenwich High School	Avengers	17	17	14	17	15	17	117 MRP	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Barnstable HS Raiders	1	1	3	3	5	5
Barrington High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6
Bishop Stang High Spartans	3	3	5	5	7	7
Boston Latin School Wolfpack	4	4	6	6	8	8
Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers	5	5	7	7	9	9
East Greenwich High School Avengers	6	6	8	8	10	10
Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	7	7	9	9	11	11
Moses Brown School Quakers	8	8	10	10	12	12
Newton Country Day School Falcons	9	9	11	11	13	13
Newton North High School Tigers	10	10	12	12	14	14
Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	11	11	13	13	15	15
Sandwich High School Blue Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16
St. George's School Dragons	13	13	15	15	17	17
Tabor Academy Seawolves	14	14	16	16	1	1
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	15	15	17	17	2	2
The Williams School Blues	16	16	1	1	3	3
Wellesley High School Raiders	17	17	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Barnstable HS Raiders	2	2	4	4	6	6
Barrington High School Eagles	3	3	5	5	7	7
Bishop Stang High Spartans	4	4	6	6	8	8
Boston Latin School Wolfpack	5	5	7	7	9	9
Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers	6	6	8	8	10	10
East Greenwich High School Avengers	7	7	9	9	11	11
Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	8	8	10	10	12	12
Moses Brown School Quakers	9	9	11	11	13	13
Newton Country Day School Falcons	10	10	12	12	14	14
Newton North High School Tigers	11	11	13	13	15	15
Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	12	12	14	14	16	16
Sandwich High School Blue Knights	13	13	15	15	17	17
St. George's School Dragons	14	14	16	16	1	1
Tabor Academy Seawolves	15	15	17	17	2	2
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	16	16	1	1	3	3
The Williams School Blues	17	17	2	2	4	4
Wellesley High School Raiders	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Barnstable HS	Taylor Eastman '20	Lilly Mathieu '19
Raiders	Joshua Hersey '20	Mikayla Mathieu '18
Barrington High School	Riley Kloc '18	Kaleigh Morgan '19
Eagles	Charles Kreuzkamp '20	Joseph Wicker '20
Bishop Stang High	Clinton Hegarty '19	Joseph Russo '18
Spartans	Santiago Hirschmann '18	Edward Sparrow '18
Boston Latin School	Adam Grant '22	Daniel Shpigel '21
Wolfpack	Lucas Caron '20 [1-2, 5-6] Dominic Orlando '22 [3-4]	Nathaniel O'Brien '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Dover Sherborn RHS	Eli Gleason '20 [1-4] Brooks Jordan '20 [5-6]	Fay Hannah '19 [1-4] Lydia Austin '20 [5-6]
Radiers	Christopher Cone '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Green '20 [3-4]	Sierra Devine '22 [1-2, 5-6] Andrew Fiore '19 [3-4]
East Greenwich High School	No Show	No Show
Avengers	No Show	No Show
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Joe Serpa '20	Elizabeth O'Brien '18
Vineyarders	Patrick Flahrety '20 [1-2] Coltrane Leport '18 [3-6]	Coltrane Leport '18 [1-2] Menasha Leport '21 [3-4] Christian Schmidt '19 [5-6]
Moses Brown School	Henry Lee '20 [1-4] Alexander Runci '19 [5-6]	Niku Angier '19 [1-2] Francie Elliot '18 [3-4] Maddy Kerr '19 [5-6]
Quakers	Aili Moffet '19 [1-6]	Skyler Sullivan '18 [1-4] Niku Angier '19 [5-6]
Newton Country Day School	Emma Montgomery '18	Jamie Page '19
Falcons	Katelyn Mcgauley '20	Kaitlyn Bradshaw '19
Newton North High School	Nolan Cooper '20	Natalie Elder '20
Tigers	Ryan Park '17 [1-6]	Ethan Gahm '19 [1-2] Lauren Elder '21 [3-6]
Portsmouth Abbey School	Evan Boyd '19 [1-2] Jack Fisher '20 [3-6]	Ceci Bohan '20 [1-2] Aidan Brown '20 [3-6]
Ravens	Faith Cournoyer '19 [1-2] Gabe Sotomayor '18 [3-6]	Jackie Morrison '18 [1-2]
Sandwich High School	Thomas Greeley '19	Ali Senior '20
Blue Knights	Max Hart '19	Justin Higgins '20
St. George's School	Matt Logue '18 [1-4] Gray Benson '18 [5-6]	Ben White '18 [1-4] Colin Macgillivray '19 [5-6]
Dragons	John Kirkpatrick '18 [1-4] Ted Bjerregaard '18 [5-6]	Wyatt Fogg '19 [1-4]
Tabor Academy	Cj Mckenna '18	Nick Marshall '18
Seawolves	Jack Howard '19	Michael Collins '18
The Hotchkiss School	Tommy Whittemore '18	Elizabeth Koobatian '19
Bearcats	Christopher Lukens '19 [1-4] Oliver Hurwitz '21 [5-6]	Gwyneth Howell '20 [1-4] Casey Mason '19 [5-6]
The Williams School	Alex Bowdler '18 [1-2] Colin Madaus '18 [3-6]	Tim Nessel '18 [1-2] Elizabeth Li '21 [3-4] Jordy Plisic '19 [5-6]
Blues	Caelan Desmond '20 [1-2, 5-6] Mary Madaus '21 [3-4]	Brenna Henley '20 [1-2] Samantha Karlson '21 [3-4] Tim Nessel '18 [5-6]
Wellesley High School	Owen Ward '18	Zane Salameh '18
Raiders	Hailey Feinzig '18 [1-6]	Elizabeth Harrington '18 [1-2] Maia Grissino '20 [3-6]

Conditions — 04/21/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 45% · Pressure 1025.1 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.5 kn

avg · max 9.9 kn

Gusts to 20.0 kn

From WNW (289°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1025.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Ida Lewis YC/ St. George's School: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ida Lewis YC/ St. George's School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Ida Lewis YC/ St. George's School: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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