St. George's School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.36 (fleet 3.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 94–23 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 24–10 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 21–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 27–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 22–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (117 matches) the record is 94–23 against 89.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.74 | 2.30 | 8–6 | 8.9 | −0.44 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.63 | 2.83 | 16–4 | 15.5 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.89 | 2.03 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.86 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.77 | 3.72 | 18–2 | 16.3 | +0.96 | 0.8 | 25% |
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.82 | 5.82 | 11–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 5.2 | 2% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.67 | 2.18 | 16–4 | 17.1 | −0.49 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.50 | 2.81 | 8–3 | 7.5 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | skipper | 2.15 | 2.90 | 14–2 | 12.8 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 34% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Matt Logue |  George Washington University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
