High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy

HostSan Diego Yacht Club
Date05/26/2018
TypeNational Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Point Loma High School	Pointers	17–0
2	Antilles School	Hurricanes	11–6
3	Christchurch School	Seahorses	10–7
4	Clear Falls High School	Knights	9–8
5	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings	9–5
6	Severn School	Admirals	7–7
7	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	7–7
8	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	6–8
9	St. George's School	Dragons	8–6
10	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	3–11
11	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	2–12
12	Orcas High School	Vikings	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,246 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 67 of 89 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.454 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.27: an orderly event, more orderly than 70% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	1	10.07 school +0.39	Jack Egan / Marcus Huttunen 3.32 Diego Escobar / Emma Batcher 2.89 Jack Reiter / James (Jd) Schrady 3.40	84%	17–0 (100%)	+2.8
2	Antilles School Hurricanes	6	8.15 school +0.49	Christopher Sharpless / Rayne Duff 2.21 Teddy Nicolosi / Gillian Perrell 2.98 Robert Hunter / Victoria Flatley 2.40	49%	11–6 (65%)	+2.6
3	Christchurch School Seahorses	4	8.71	Robert Bragg / Reese Bragg 3.24 9–6 Benton Amthor / Galt Oliver 2.91 5–5 Mariana Guzman Casas / Nathan Smith 2.53 3–3 Nathan Smith / Galt Oliver 2.81 3–1 Benton Amthor / Sally Johnson 2.92 3–1 Mariana Guzman Casas / Jeff Elkin 2.29 2–2 Benton Amthor / Nathan Smith 2.95 2–1 Mariana Guzman Casas / Galt Oliver 2.48 2–1 Robert Bragg / Sally Johnson 3.29 1–1	60%	10–7 (59%)	−0.3
4	Clear Falls High School Knights	5	8.22 school +0.14	Zane Rogers / Dutch Byerly 2.59 Wiley Rogers / Katie Mcgagh 2.93 Noah Zittrer / Cade Morrell 6–5 Noah Zittrer / Matthew Morrell 1–2 Noah Zittrer / Philip Adams 1–1 Asher Zittrer / Cade Morrell 2.52 1–0	52%	9–8 (53%)	+0.2
5	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	8	7.59 school −0.36	Porter Killian / Catherine Webb 2.60 Max Mayol / Sammy Pickell 2.98 Cameron Wood / Carah Reddin 2.35 7–1 Cameron Wood / Marbella Marlo 2.31 2–4	47%	9–5 (64%)	+2.4
6	Severn School Admirals	2	8.66 school +0.41	Mariner Fagan / Caroline Mcneil 2.99 7–5 Maddie Hawkins / Blair Reilly 2.93 7–5 Caroline Bayless / Abby Tindall 2.56 4–2 Jordan Bruce / Camille White 2.15 3–1 Jordan Bruce / Maddie Hawkins 2.19 0–2 Sam Bruce / Caroline Mcneil 2.89 0–2 Mariner Fagan / Abby Tindall 2.92 0–2 Jordan Bruce / Abby Tindall 2.20 0–2	66%	7–7 (50%)	−2.2
7	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	9	7.58 school +0.74	Conner Correll / Robert (Bobby) Rielly 2.44 Chase Sabadash / Kenna Reed 2.33 4–7 Joey Meagher / Libby Redmond 1.78 3–4 Connor Boland / Libby Redmond 2–3 Connor Boland / Isa Duplessis 2–0 Connor Boland / Caroline Dubois-Weber 1–0	45%	6–7 (46%)	+0.1
8	Tabor Academy Seawolves	7	7.77 school +0.47	Jack Howard / Michael Collins 2.54 6–7 Cj Mckenna / Nick Marshall 2.60 5–7 Jack Corbett / Cat Shakin 2.25 2–5 Anthony Minder / Blair Lalor 2.08 3–2 Cj Mckenna / Blair Lalor 2.37 1–1 Jack Corbett / Nick Marshall 2.27 1–1 Jack Howard / Stone Lack 2.24 0–1	48%	6–8 (43%)	−0.8
9	St. George's School Dragons	3	8.14 school +0.69	Gray Benson / Amelia Jessop 2.41 Matt Logue / Ben White 2.74 John Kirkpatrick / Wyatt Fogg 2.26	64%	8–6 (57%)	−0.9
10	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	12	5.58 school −0.26	Christiana Scheibner / Drew Clutterbuck 1.64 3–5 John Walton / Carly Orhan 2.12 3–4 Blake Stackpoole / Taft Peck 2.08 2–4 Blake Stackpoole / Dominic Dulac 2.19 0–4 Blake Stackpoole / Lucas Bellamy 2.11 1–3 Christiana Scheibner / Anna Carron 1.59 0–3 John Walton / Lucas Bellamy 2.07 0–2 John Walton / Dominic Dulac 2.16 0–2 Lucas Bellamy / Taft Peck 0–2 John Walton / Drew Clutterbuck 2.11 0–2 John Walton / Anna Carron 2.06 0–1 Christiana Scheibner / Dominic Dulac 1.70 0–1	20%	3–11 (21%)	+0.2
11	Minnetonka High School Skippers	11	5.91 school −0.49	Matthew Kickhafer / Rowan O'Connell 2.22 Graham Ness / Lucia Loosbrock 1.99 Nate Olmsted / Annika Irene 2.15	25%	2–11 (15%)	−1.3
12	Orcas High School Vikings	10	6.09 school +0.33	Dominick Wareham / Millie Kau 2.04 Maggie Toombs / Levi Moss 1.94 1–8 Ronan Rankin / Miette Woolworth 1.75 1–8 Maggie Toombs / Landon Carter 1.93 0–5 Ronan Rankin / Ronan Kau 1.75 0–5	28%	1–13 (7%)	−2.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Point Loma High School	10.07	13.07	17–0	14.2	≥+3.00	4.0	4%
5	Corona del Mar High School	7.59	8.66	9–5	6.6	+1.07	1.5	13%
2	Antilles School	8.15	9.15	11–6	8.4	+0.99	1.5	12%
10	Grosse Pointe South High School	5.58	5.69	3–11	2.8	+0.12	0.0	57%
4	Clear Falls High School	8.22	8.29	9–8	8.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
7	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	7.58	7.64	6–7	5.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
3	Christchurch School	8.71	8.60	10–7	10.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
8	Tabor Academy	7.77	7.43	6–8	6.8	−0.34	0.1	77%
9	St. George's School	8.14	7.70	8–6	8.9	−0.44	0.2	81%
11	Minnetonka High School	5.91	4.98	2–11	3.3	−0.92	0.6	90%
6	Severn School	8.66	7.67	7–7	9.2	−1.00	1.3	95%
12	Orcas High School	6.09	3.72	1–13	3.9	−2.37	3.3	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Anthony Minder	Tabor Academy	2.08	2.95	3–2	2.3	+0.88	0.4	40%
Connor Boland	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	2.26	2.94	5–3	4.1	+0.68	0.3	38%
Zane Rogers	Clear Falls High School	2.59	2.66	9–8	8.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
Conner Correll	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	2.44	2.50	6–7	5.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
Mariana Guzman Casas	Christchurch School	2.53	2.35	7–6	7.4	−0.18	0.0	71%
Chase Sabadash	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	2.33	1.83	4–7	4.9	−0.50	0.3	82%
Nate Olmsted	Minnetonka High School	2.15	1.23	2–11	3.3	−0.92	0.6	90%
Dominick Wareham	Orcas High School	2.04	-0.33	1–13	3.9	−2.37	3.3	99%
Maggie Toombs	Orcas High School	1.94	-0.44	1–13	3.9	−2.37	3.3	99%
Ronan Rankin	Orcas High School	1.75	-0.62	1–13	3.9	−2.37	3.3	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Point Loma High School	St. George's School	82%
1	2	Antilles School	Corona del Mar High School	60%
1	3	Clear Falls High School	Severn School	41%	upset
1	4	Tabor Academy	Grosse Pointe South High School	83%
1	6	Christchurch School	Orcas High School	88%
1	7	Point Loma High School	Severn School	78%
1	8	Antilles School	Tabor Academy	58%
1	9	Clear Falls High School	St. George's School	48%	upset
1	10	Corona del Mar High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	82%
1	11	Point Loma High School	Minnetonka High School	96%
1	12	Antilles School	Orcas High School	83%
1	13	Severn School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	64%
1	14	Christchurch School	Tabor Academy	70%
1	15	St. George's School	Minnetonka High School	85%
1	16	Corona del Mar High School	Orcas High School	77%
1	17	Point Loma High School	Clear Falls High School	82%
1	18	Antilles School	Grosse Pointe South High School	88%
1	19	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	St. George's School	44%	upset
1	20	Corona del Mar High School	Christchurch School	30%	upset
1	21	Severn School	Minnetonka High School	91%
1	22	Tabor Academy	Orcas High School	80%
1	23	Clear Falls High School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	64%
1	24	Christchurch School	Grosse Pointe South High School	94%
1	25	Severn School	St. George's School	57%
1	26	Tabor Academy	Corona del Mar High School	57%
1	27	Point Loma High School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	89%
1	28	Antilles School	Christchurch School	34%	upset
1	29	Clear Falls High School	Minnetonka High School	85%
1	30	Grosse Pointe South High School	Orcas High School	40%	upset
1	31	Point Loma High School	Tabor Academy	84%
1	32	St. George's School	Corona del Mar High School	61%
1	33	Antilles School	Severn School	43%	upset
1	34	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Christchurch School	25%	upset
1	35	Clear Falls High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	89%
1	36	Minnetonka High School	Orcas High School	46%	upset
1	37	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	55%
1	38	Point Loma High School	Antilles School	82%
1	39	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Corona del Mar High School	47%	upset
1	40	Severn School	Orcas High School	90%
1	41	Minnetonka High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	56%
1	42	Christchurch School	Clear Falls High School	55%
1	43	Point Loma High School	Corona del Mar High School	87%
1	44	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	64%
1	45	St. George's School	Orcas High School	83%
1	46	Severn School	Grosse Pointe South High School	93%
1	47	Clear Falls High School	Tabor Academy	56%
1	48	Christchurch School	Minnetonka High School	90%
1	49	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Orcas High School	70%
1	50	Point Loma High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	97%
1	51	Corona del Mar High School	Severn School	33%	upset
1	52	Antilles School	St. George's School	50%
1	53	Tabor Academy	Minnetonka High School	80%
1	54	Clear Falls High School	Orcas High School	85%
1	55	Point Loma High School	Christchurch School	75%
1	56	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	83%
1	57	Antilles School	Minnetonka High School	85%
1	58	Corona del Mar High School	Clear Falls High School	37%	upset
1	59	Tabor Academy	Severn School	28%	upset
1	60	Christchurch School	St. George's School	60%
1	61	Point Loma High School	Orcas High School	96%
1	62	Corona del Mar High School	Minnetonka High School	79%
1	63	Clear Falls High School	Antilles School	52%
1	64	Tabor Academy	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	45%	upset
1	65	St. George's School	Grosse Pointe South High School	89%
1	66	Christchurch School	Severn School	46%	upset
1	67	St. George's School	Orcas High School	84%
1	68	Severn School	Tabor Academy	72%
1	69	Antilles School	Clear Falls High School	48%	upset
1	70	Point Loma High School	Christchurch School	75%
1	71	Grosse Pointe South High School	Minnetonka High School	44%	upset
1	72	Corona del Mar High School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	52%
1	73	Christchurch School	Antilles School	65%
1	74	Point Loma High School	Clear Falls High School	80%
1	75	St. George's School	Grosse Pointe South High School	89%
1	76	Corona del Mar High School	Tabor Academy	44%	upset
1	77	Clear Falls High School	Christchurch School	46%	upset
1	78	Point Loma High School	Antilles School	82%
1	79	Orcas High School	Minnetonka High School	54%
1	80	Severn School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	60%
1	81	St. George's School	Minnetonka High School	85%
1	82	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Tabor Academy	55%
1	83	Grosse Pointe South High School	Orcas High School	40%	upset
1	84	Corona del Mar High School	Severn School	33%	upset
1	85	Antilles School	Clear Falls High School	48%	upset
1	86	Point Loma High School	Christchurch School	75%
1	87	Christchurch School	Antilles School	65%
1	88	Point Loma High School	Clear Falls High School	80%
1	89	Christchurch School	Clear Falls High School	54%
1	90	Point Loma High School	Antilles School	82%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Pointers	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6
2	Hurricanes	1-3-4	def.	Sea Kings	2-5-6
3	Knights	2-3-4	def.	Admirals	1-5-6
4	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Blue Devils	3-4-6
5	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
6	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
7	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Admirals	3-5-6
8	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
9	Knights	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
10	Sea Kings	1-2-3	def.	Blue Devils	4-5-6
11	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Skippers	3-5-6
12	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
13	Admirals	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
14	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
15	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
16	Sea Kings	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
17	Pointers	1-3-5	def.	Knights	2-4-6
18	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Blue Devils	4-5-6
19	Raiders	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6
20	Sea Kings	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
21	Admirals	2-3-5	def.	Skippers	1-4-6
22	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
23	Knights	1-4-5	def.	Raiders	2-3-6
24	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Blue Devils	3-5-6
25	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
26	Seawolves	1-3-6	def.	Sea Kings	2-4-5
27	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
28	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
29	Knights	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
30	Blue Devils	1-3-5	def.	Vikings	2-4-6
31	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
32	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Sea Kings	3-4-6
33	Hurricanes	2-3-5	def.	Admirals	1-4-6
34	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Seahorses	1-5-6
35	Knights	2-3-4	def.	Blue Devils	1-5-6
36	Skippers	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
37	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
38	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
39	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Sea Kings	3-4-5
40	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Vikings	3-5-6
41	Skippers	1-2-4	def.	Blue Devils	3-5-6
42	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
43	Pointers	1-2-3	def.	Sea Kings	4-5-6
44	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
45	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
46	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Blue Devils	1-5-6
47	Knights	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
48	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6 DNF
49	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
50	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Blue Devils	3-5-6
51	Sea Kings	1-2-4	def.	Admirals	3-5-6
52	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
53	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Skippers	2-5-6
54	Knights	1-4-5	def.	Vikings	2-3-6
55	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
56	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Blue Devils	3-4-6
57	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
58	Sea Kings	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
59	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
60	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
61	Pointers	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
62	Sea Kings	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
63	Knights	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
64	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
65	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Blue Devils	2-5-6
66	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Admirals	2-3-6
67	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
68	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
69	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
70	Pointers	1-2-3	def.	Seahorses	4-5-6
71	Blue Devils	1-3-4	def.	Skippers	2-5-6
72	Sea Kings	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
73	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
74	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
75	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Blue Devils	3-5-6
76	Sea Kings	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
77	Knights	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
78	Pointers	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
79	Vikings	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
80	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
81	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Skippers	3-5-6
82	Raiders	1-3-6	def.	Seawolves	2-4-5
83	Blue Devils	2-3-4	def.	Vikings	1-5-6
84	Sea Kings	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
85	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Knights	4-5-6
86	Pointers	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
87	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
88	Pointers	1-4-5	def.	Knights	2-3-6
89	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
90	Pointers	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Point Loma High School	Pointers	Diego Escobar '20 Jack Egan '20 Jack Reiter '18	Emma Batcher '18 Marcus Huttunen '20 James (Jd) Schrady '18
Antilles School	Hurricanes	Christopher Sharpless '19 Robert Hunter '18 Teddy Nicolosi '19	Rayne Duff '21 Victoria Flatley '20 Gillian Perrell '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Benton Amthor '19 Boyd Bragg '19 Mariana Guzman Casas '19 Nathan Smith '20	Galt Oliver '18 Sally Johnson '18 Nathan Smith '20 Reese Bragg '21 Jeff Elkin '20
Clear Falls High School	Knights	Asher Zittrer '19 Noah Zittrer '21 Wiley Rogers '18 Zane Rogers '20	Cade Morrell '21 Philip Adams '18 Matthew Morrell '20 Katie Mcgagh '21 Dutch Byerly '20
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings	Cameron Wood '18 Max Mayol '19 Porter Killian '18	Marbella Marlo '20 Carah Reddin '18 Sammy Pickell '18 Catherine Webb '18
Severn School	Admirals	Caroline Bayless '19 Jordan Bruce '20 Madeline Hawkins '20 Mariner Fagan '20 Sam Bruce '20	Abby Tindall '19 Madeline Hawkins '20 Camille White '18 Blair Reilly '18 Caroline Mcneil '18
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	Chase Sabadash '18 Conner Correll '18 Connor Boland '21 Joey Meagher '20	Kenna Reed '20 Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21 Libby Redmond '20 Caroline Dubois-Weber '19 Isa Duplessis '20
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Anthony Minder '19 Cj Mckenna '18 Jack Corbett '19 Jack Howard '19	Blair Lalor '18 Nick Marshall '18 Cat Shakin '19 Michael Collins '18 Stone Lack '18
St. George's School	Dragons	Gray Benson '18 John Kirkpatrick '18 Matt Logue '18	Amelia Jessop '21 Wyatt Fogg '19 Ben White '18
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	Blake Stackpoole '18 Christiana Scheibner '19 John Walton '18 Lucas Bellamy '20	Taft Peck '18 Dominic Dulac '20 Lucas Bellamy '20 Anna Carron '21 Drew Clutterbuck '19 Carly Orhan '19
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	Graham Ness '19 Matthew Kickhafer '19 Nate Olmsted '19	Lucia Loosbrock '21 Rowan O'Connell '20 Annika Irene '19
Orcas High School	Vikings	Dominick Wareham '19 Maggie Toombs '18 Ronan Rankin '19	Millie Kau '19 Levi Moss '19 Landon Carter '21 Ronan Kau '19 Miette Woolworth '21

Conditions — 05/26/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.8 kn

avg · max 10.8 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1016.6 hPa

What this breeze does at San Diego Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at San Diego Yacht Club in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at San Diego Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at San Diego Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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