Clear Falls High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.28 (fleet 3.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–16 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 12–8 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 11–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 21–16 against 21.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.65 | 2.15 | 6–8 | 7.0 | −0.50 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2019-04-27 | 2019 SEISA Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.47 | 5.47 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.59 | 2.66 | 9–8 | 8.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| NOYC High School Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.0 | 2.24 |
| ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Race Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.7 | 0.83 |
| 2019 SEISA Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.9 | 2.85 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA 2018 Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 3 | 100% | — |
| SEISA 2018 Fleet Champs | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.1 | 2.51 |
| Mallory Championship 2018 | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.2 | 1.50 |
| High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| College of Charleston Intersectional | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 2.58 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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