NOYC High School Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 15 8 23
2 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 20 23 43
3 Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 21 24 45
4 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 33 31 64
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 51 38 89
6 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 51 44 95
7 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 41 64 105
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 1 1 OCS 1 1 1 15 Zane Rogers '20
Dutch Byerly '20
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 2 5 2 2 1 3 2 3 20 Nate Hartwell '24 [1-8]
Ava Cocke '23 [1-6]
Sullivan Stankoski '23 [7-8]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 21 Ryan Ringel '21
Alex Christy '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 4 3 5 5 2 4 5 5 33 Emily Threeton '22
Kristina Rosch '22
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons DNF 4 4 4 OCS 5 4 4 41 Sarah Bancroft '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Jack Hammett '22 [3-4]
Rachel Bancroft '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Jack Hammett '22 [5-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 5 7 OCS 7 5 7 6 6 51 Isabella White '22 [1-8]
Caitlyn Hall '22 [1-6]
Jennefer Young '20 [7-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 OCS 6 6 6 4 6 DNS 7 51 Meghan Keen '22
Christina Basara '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 Hamilton Barkley '23
Katie Mcgagh '21
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 5 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 23 Robert Montgomery '22 [1-4]
Luke Edmiston '22 [5-8]
Sullivan Stankoski '23 [1-4]
Ava Cocke '23 [5-8]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 24 David Dye '21
Spencer Byrd '25
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 4 5 2 2 4 4 4 6 31 Cassidy O'Brien '21
Victoria Vandenweghe '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 2 4 6 6 5 6 5 4 38 Karen Stiegler '21
Sibria Adams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 44 Emily Williams '23
Grayson Eppling '23
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons11335577
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights22446611
Niceville High SchoolNiceville High School Varsity33557722
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals44661133
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 155772244
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 266113355
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 377224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons22446611
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights33557722
Niceville High SchoolNiceville High School Varsity44661133
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals55772244
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 166113355
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 277224466
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 311335577

Conditions — 04/06/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1016.8 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.5 kn
avg  ·  max 12.0 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From S (170°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1016.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ursuline Academy: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.40 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ursuline Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Ursuline Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →