Ursuline Academy '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.37 (fleet 0.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–15 (12%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 1–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 2–15 against 3.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-10 | SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.63 | 0.15 | 1–7 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2020-03-14 | Mississippi Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.43 | -2.57 | 0–5 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| 2020-02-01 | Louisiana Team Racing Champs | skipper | 0.20 | 0.75 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 62% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Emily Threeton |  Rollins College |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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