Navigate

Bay Access 1st Annual Girls Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 11 8 19
2 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 25 16 41
3 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 29 31 60
4 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 22 45 67
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 41 38 79
6 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 56 56 112
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 11 Ava Anderson '23
Margaret Schuler '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 2 2 2 DNS 2 2 3 2 22 Kate Dennis '23
Madison Holm '22
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 3 3 3 1 DNF 3 2 3 25 Cassidy O'Brien '21
Sophie Chevis '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 4 4 4 2 3 4 4 4 29 Isabella White '22 [1-8]
Evie Barras '24 [1-2]
Isabella Webster '22 [3-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 5 5 5 3 4 5 DNF DNS 41 Karen Stiegler '21 [1]
Meghan Keen '22 [2-8]
Josephine Lackey '23 [1]
Karen Stiegler '21 [2-8]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 56 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 Kelly Bates '22 [1-8]
Olivia Espiritu '21 [1, 6-8]
Hayley Guidry '22 [2-5]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 16 Emily Threeton '22
Emily Williams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 4 4 3 DNF 3 3 3 4 31 Emerson Goodlett '24
Madelyn Oster '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 5 5 DNF 3 4 DNF 4 3 38 Victoria Vandenweghe '23 [1-8]
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Sibria Adams '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 3 3 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 45 Lorelai Kagey '24
Riley Guidry '24
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 56 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 11313131313131313
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 288888888
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 31515151515151515
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 111111111
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 222222222
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 199999999
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 21010101010101010
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 31212121212121212
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 11111111111111111
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 255555555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 366666666

Conditions — 03/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 90%  ·  Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.8 kn
avg  ·  max 14.5 kn
Gusts to 25.7 kn
From SSE (160°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine4.7 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1012.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Clear Falls: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.23
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.73 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Clear Falls by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Clear Falls, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →