| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Isidore Newman School | Greenies | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 1–3 |
| 3 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 1–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,955 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.257 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isidore Newman School Greenies | 1 | 4.39 | Thomas Kerrigan / No Show Emily Alfortish / Jack Laurent Nick Lovell / Sullivan Reznik | 98% | 4–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 2 | Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays | 2 | -0.24 | Ashton Edwards / Myles Douglas Aiden Keister / Degan Dansereau 0.19 Harry Fantaci / Jack Finch | 33% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.3 |
| 3 | Ursuline Academy Lions | 3 | -0.91 school −0.11, home +0.01 | Emily Threeton / Emily Williams Meghan Keen / Isabella Webster Kennedy Cooper / Kate Ford 0–2 Kennedy Cooper / Sophie Chevis 1–1 | 19% | 1–3 (25%) | +0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isidore Newman School | 4.39 | 7.39 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| 3 | Ursuline Academy | -0.91 | -0.35 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 62% |
| 2 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | -0.24 | -0.99 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.75 | 0.1 | 87% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Kerrigan | Isidore Newman School | 1.71 | 4.71 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| Nick Lovell | Isidore Newman School | 0.79 | 3.79 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| Kennedy Cooper | Ursuline Academy | -0.53 | 0.03 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Meghan Keen | Ursuline Academy | -0.61 | -0.05 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Ashton Edwards | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.07 | -0.67 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.75 | 0.1 | 87% |
| Aiden Keister | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.19 | -0.56 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.75 | 0.1 | 87% |
| Harry Fantaci | Jesuit High School, NOLA | -0.68 | -1.42 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.75 | 0.1 | 87% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Isidore Newman School | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 97% | |
| 1 | 2 | Isidore Newman School | Ursuline Academy | 99% | |
| 1 | 3 | Ursuline Academy | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 37% | upset |
| 2 | 4 | Isidore Newman School | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 97% | |
| 2 | 5 | Isidore Newman School | Ursuline Academy | 98% | |
| 2 | 6 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | Ursuline Academy | 63% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Greenies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Greenies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Lions | 1-3-6 DNF | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Greenies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Greenies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 6 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Isidore Newman School | Greenies | Emily Alfortish '21 Nick Lovell '23 Thomas Kerrigan '22 |
Jack Laurent '24 Sullivan Reznik '30 No Show |
|
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | Aiden Keister '20 Ashton Edwards '21 Harry Fantaci '24 |
Degan Dansereau '24 Myles Douglas '21 Jack Finch '24 |
|
Ursuline Academy | Lions | Emily Threeton '22 Kennedy Cooper '20 Meghan Keen '22 |
Emily Williams '23 Kate Ford '21 Sophie Chevis '21 Isabella Webster '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
