Isidore Newman School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.78 (fleet 1.27) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–8 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 4–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 11–8 against 12.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-10 | SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.89 | 0.55 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2021-04-17 | SEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.83 | -0.67 | 2–4 | 3.0 | −1.50 | 0.8 | 96% |
| 2020-02-01 | Louisiana Team Racing Champs | skipper | 0.79 | 3.79 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| SEISA Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 0.43 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Louisiana Team Racing Champs | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| 2019 Greater New Orleans Area High School Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl 2018 | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 0.68 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NOLA Spring 3 | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.5 | 2.62 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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