| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Isidore Newman School | Greenies | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,167 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 12 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.262 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.74 ± 0.69: an orderly event, more orderly than 94% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Travis High School Cavaliers | 1 | 5.21 home +-0.01 | Lucy Brock / Kate Hennig 1.63 James Brock / Vivian Heitkoetter Julius Heitkoetter / William Cranney-Fee 1.63 | 73% | 6–0 (100%) | +1.6 |
| 2 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 2 | 5.11 school +0.07 | Ava Anderson / Madison Holm Aidan Dennis / Truman Bright Kelly Bates / Lorelai Kagey | 71% | 4–2 (67%) | −0.2 |
| 3 | Isidore Newman School Greenies | 3 | 4.11 | Nick Lovell / Ellie Menszer 0.83 Emily Alfortish / Jack Laurent 1.83 Ashley Alfortish / Cora Villere | 51% | 2–4 (33%) | −1.0 |
| 4 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 4 | 1.13 school +0.18 | Joel Grumme / Lane Burroughs 0.60 Devon Long / Ashley Hilton John Andre / C.T. Ilgenfritz -0.01 | 6% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Travis High School | 5.21 | 8.21 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| 2 | Clear Falls High School | 5.11 | 4.79 | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 3 | Isidore Newman School | 4.11 | 2.61 | 2–4 | 3.0 | −1.50 | 0.8 | 96% |
| 4 | St. Stanislaus | 1.13 | -1.87 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Brock | Lake Travis High School | 1.63 | 4.63 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | Lake Travis High School | 1.63 | 4.63 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Ava Anderson | Clear Falls High School | 1.58 | 1.27 | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Aidan Dennis | Clear Falls High School | 1.48 | 1.17 | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Nick Lovell | Isidore Newman School | 0.83 | -0.67 | 2–4 | 3.0 | −1.50 | 0.8 | 96% |
| Ashley Alfortish | Isidore Newman School | 1.31 | -0.19 | 2–4 | 3.0 | −1.50 | 0.8 | 96% |
| Joel Grumme | St. Stanislaus | 0.60 | -2.40 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Devon Long | St. Stanislaus | 0.24 | -2.76 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| John Andre | St. Stanislaus | -0.01 | -3.01 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 2 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Greenies | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Greenies | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Greenies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Greenies | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Greenies | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Greenies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | James Brock '24 Julius Heitkoetter '21 Lucy Brock '21 |
Vivian Heitkoetter '23 William Cranney-Fee '22 Kate Hennig '22 |
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Aidan Dennis '21 Ava Anderson '23 Kelly Bates '22 |
Truman Bright '23 Madison Holm '22 Lorelai Kagey '24 |
|
Isidore Newman School | Greenies | Ashley Alfortish '23 Emily Alfortish '21 Nick Lovell '23 |
Cora Villere '23 Jack Laurent '24 Ellie Menszer '22 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Devon Long '24 Joel Grumme '21 John Andre '24 |
Ashley Hilton '24 Lane Burroughs '24 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
