Saint Stanislaus '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 (fleet 0.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–24 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 6–10 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 7–7 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 15–24 against 13.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Mississippi Team Racing Champs | skipper | 0.80 | 3.44 | 2–1 | 0.6 | +2.64 | 2.2 | 11% |
| 2023-04-02 | SEISA Champs - Team | skipper | 0.74 | 0.42 | 2–8 | 2.2 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2023-03-26 | Mississippi Team Racing Champs | skipper | 0.70 | 1.17 | 4–2 | 3.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2022-04-10 | SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.64 | -0.51 | 1–7 | 1.8 | −1.15 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2022-03-27 | Mississippi Team Racing Champs | skipper | 0.37 | 3.37 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| 2021-04-17 | SEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.24 | -2.76 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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