| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Clear Lake High School | Falcons | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,352 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 30 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.259 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.20 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 6.59 | 9.59 | 10–0 | 8.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 18% |
| 2 | Clear Lake High School | 4.78 | 5.60 | 7–3 | 6.1 | +0.83 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 4 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 3.50 | 4.17 | 5–5 | 4.3 | +0.67 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 5 | St. Stanislaus | 1.84 | 1.52 | 2–8 | 2.2 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 3 | Lake Travis High School | 6.09 | 4.23 | 6–4 | 7.9 | −1.86 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 6 | Ursuline Academy | 0.22 | -2.78 | 0–10 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Anderson | Clear Falls High School | 2.23 | 5.23 | 10–0 | 8.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 18% |
| Ewan Dossin | Clear Falls High School | 1.56 | 4.56 | 10–0 | 8.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 18% |
| Aidan Mckoin | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.86 | 1.53 | 5–5 | 4.3 | +0.67 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Connor Fanberg | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 1.72 | 2.40 | 5–5 | 4.3 | +0.67 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Ruston Breisacher | St. Stanislaus | 0.46 | 0.37 | 2–6 | 2.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Jeremy Reddoch | St. Stanislaus | 0.58 | 0.30 | 2–6 | 2.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Devon Long | St. Stanislaus | 0.74 | 0.42 | 2–8 | 2.2 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Aidan Castle | St. Stanislaus | 0.39 | -2.61 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Evie Barras | Ursuline Academy | 0.31 | -2.69 | 0–10 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Julia Poche | Ursuline Academy | 0.56 | -2.44 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Knights | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Lions | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Blue Jays | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Blue Jays | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 25 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Knights | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 28 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Blue Jays | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
