Ursuline Academy '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–15 (6%) as crew 0–5 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 0–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 1–20 against 3.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-02 | SEISA Champs - Team | skipper | 0.56 | -2.44 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| 2022-04-10 | SEISA Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.57 | 0.10 | 1–7 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2020-03-14 | Mississippi Team Racing Championship | crew | 0.07 | -2.93 | 0–5 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
