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Rock the New Year

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 11 11
2 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 24 24
3 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 38 38
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 43 43
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 47 47
6 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 53 53
7 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 57 57
8 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 61 61
9 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 66 66
10 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 68 68
11 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 76 76
12 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 80 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 11 Joshua Grumme '20 [1-4]
Joel Grumme '21 [5-8]
Joel Grumme '21 [1-4]
Joshua Grumme '20 [5-8]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 2 6 2 1 8 2 2 1 24 Sarah Marlar '20 [1-8]
Elise Poche '23 [1-4]
Harriss Thorne '23 [5-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 3 5 5 7 2 3 9 4 38 Meghan Keen '22 [1-8]
Avery Steele '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Nicolette Welch '24 [3-6]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 8 3 7 4 4 6 4 7 43 John Andre '24
Lane Burroughs '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 7 10 8 8 3 5 3 3 47 Isabella White '22 [1-8]
Amy Jones '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Faith Calagna '24 [3-6]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 6 7 11 9 6 4 5 5 53 Sahana Jaligam '22
Julia Gelpi '22
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 10 12 4 3 9 7 6 6 57 Ruston Breisacher '23 [1-4]
William Diaz '20 [5]
Wallace St. Paul '21 [6-8]
Alexandra Bujan '24 [1-2]
Ashley Hilton '24 [3-4]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [5-8]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 5 1 12 12 7 8 7 9 61 Jack Hammett '22
Isabel Collins '20
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 4 9 3 6 10 11 12 11 66 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Logan Boyanton '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 12 4 6 5 11 12 10 8 68 Hallie Liljeberg '24
Emerson Goodlett '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 11 11 10 11 5 10 8 10 76 Julia Poche '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Evie Barras '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Madelyn Oster '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 9 8 9 10 12 9 11 12 80 Victoria Vandenweghe '23
Sibria Adams '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 111111111
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 222222222
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 333333333
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 187178717871787178717871787178717
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 287198719871987198719871987198719
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 387188718871887188718871887188718
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4130130130130130130130130
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 144444444
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 255555555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 366666666
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 417271727172717271727172717271727
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 588888888
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 Jack Hammett '22 Isabel Collins '20
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 Sahana Jaligam '22 Julia Gelpi '22
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 Sarah Marlar '20 [1-8] Elise Poche '23 [1-4]
Harriss Thorne '23 [5-8]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 John Andre '24 Lane Burroughs '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Jeremy Reddoch '23 Logan Boyanton '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 Joshua Grumme '20 [1-4]
Joel Grumme '21 [5-8]		 Joel Grumme '21 [1-4]
Joshua Grumme '20 [5-8]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 Ruston Breisacher '23 [1-4]
William Diaz '20 [5]
Wallace St. Paul '21 [6-8]		 Alexandra Bujan '24 [1-2]
Ashley Hilton '24 [3-4]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [5-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 Meghan Keen '22 [1-8] Avery Steele '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Nicolette Welch '24 [3-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 Victoria Vandenweghe '23 Sibria Adams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 Isabella White '22 [1-8] Amy Jones '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Faith Calagna '24 [3-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 Julia Poche '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24 [3-4, 7-8]		 Evie Barras '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Madelyn Oster '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 Hallie Liljeberg '24 Emerson Goodlett '24

Conditions — 01/18/2020 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From S (174°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine4.6 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1022.1 hPa Rain0.09 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →