Saint Stanislaus '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.13 (fleet -0.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–11 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 5–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 6–11 against 5.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-27 | Mississippi Team Racing Champs | skipper | -0.04 | -1.37 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.33 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2021-04-17 | SEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | -0.01 | -3.01 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 2020-03-14 | Mississippi Team Racing Championship | skipper | -0.09 | 2.91 | 5–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 11% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mississippi Team Racing Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl 2021 | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.8 | -2.07 |
| Monk Smith | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.0 | -0.53 |
| Hospitality Regatta 2021 | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | -0.36 |
| Halloween Regatta 2021 | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.6 | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Wet n Cool High School Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.0 | -1.43 |
| SEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| SEISA Fleet Race Championships | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Rock the New Year | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.9 | — |
| Fall 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Hospitality Regatta 2020 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | -0.72 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rock the New Year | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.4 | — |
| Mississippi Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Hospitality High School Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 3.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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