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Monk Smith

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 13 13
2 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 1 20 20
3 UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 28 28
4 Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 32 32
5 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 2 49 49
6 Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings 49 49
7 Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Admirals 1 50 50
8 Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Indians 56 56
9 St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 61 61
10 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 61 61
11 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 70 70
12 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 79 79
13 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 79 79
14 Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Admirals 2 93 93
15 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 101 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 13 Elijah Healy '22
Silas Healy '23
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 1 1 2 3 3 1 5 5 20 Nate Hartwell '24 [1-7]
Cole Gunter '24 [1-4]
Robert Montgomery '22 [5-7]
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 4 1 2 DSQ 3 1 1 28 Isabelle Gautier '22
Loram Segee '22
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 7 4 6 2 4 6 3 32 Cruz Dabney '26 [1-3]
Aidyn James '25 [4-7]
Aidyn James '25 [1-3]
Cruz Dabney '26 [4-7]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 2 8 6 9 6 6 3 11 49 Gavin Faircloth '22 [1-4]
Sullivan Stankoski '23 [5-7]
Sullivan Stankoski '23 [1-4]
Gavin Faircloth '22 [5-7]
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings 11 8 4 9 5 8 4 49 Olin Wolfgram '22
Cole Rewis '26
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Admirals 1 3 14 5 4 8 9 7 50 Anderson Wolford '24 [1, 3-7]
Eleanor Omara '26 [2]
Eleanor Omara '26 [1, 3-7]
Anderson Wolford '24 [2]
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Indians 9 10 11 7 9 4 6 56 Emmett Beaty '26
Jake Mauze '26
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 6 9 10 5 10 13 8 61 Johnny Chatelain '25 [1-7]
Sarah Matthews '26 [1, 4-5, 7]
David Callecod '25 [2-3, 6]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 13 7 8 10 7 7 9 61 Devon Long '24
Ruston Breisacher '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 5 12 7 13 11 12 10 70 Jeremy Reddoch '23 [1-7]
Lane Burroughs '24 [1-4]
Alexandra Bujan '24 [5-7]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 10 11 13 11 12 10 12 79 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23
Karoline Burroughs '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 12 5 12 8 15 14 13 79 John Andre '24 [1-4, 7]
Jackson Timberlake '27 [5-6]
Ashley Hilton '24 [1-4, 7]
William Ascherl '24 [5-6]
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Admirals 2 14 15 14 12 13 11 14 93 Virginia Ann Wolford '27 [1, 3-4]
Elan Knoll '23 [2, 5-7]
Elan Knoll '23 [1, 3-4]
Virginia Ann Wolford '27 [2, 5-7]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 15 13 15 14 14 15 15 101 Aidan Castle '25
Wynn Danielson '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles12121212121212
Choctawhatchee High SchoolChoctawhatchee High School Indians6666666
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates17171717171717
Ft. Walton Beach High SchoolFt. Walton Beach High School Vikings9999999
Gulfport High SchoolGulfport High School Admirals 191919191919191
Gulfport High SchoolGulfport High School Admirals 25555555
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 113131313131313
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 215151515151515
St. Patrick Catholic High SchoolSt. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish94949494949494
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 17777777
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 282828282828282
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 37777777
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 41111111
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 526262626262626
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity8586858685868586858685868586
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles Cruz Dabney '26 [1-3]
Aidyn James '25 [4-7]		 Aidyn James '25 [1-3]
Cruz Dabney '26 [4-7]
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Indians Emmett Beaty '26 Jake Mauze '26
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Elijah Healy '22 Silas Healy '23
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings Olin Wolfgram '22 Cole Rewis '26
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Admirals 1 Anderson Wolford '24 [1, 3-7]
Eleanor Omara '26 [2]		 Eleanor Omara '26 [1, 3-7]
Anderson Wolford '24 [2]
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Admirals 2 Virginia Ann Wolford '27 [1, 3-4]
Elan Knoll '23 [2, 5-7]		 Elan Knoll '23 [1, 3-4]
Virginia Ann Wolford '27 [2, 5-7]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 Devon Long '24 Ruston Breisacher '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Jeremy Reddoch '23 [1-7] Lane Burroughs '24 [1-4]
Alexandra Bujan '24 [5-7]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 Aidan Castle '25 Wynn Danielson '27
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 Karoline Burroughs '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 John Andre '24 [1-4, 7]
Jackson Timberlake '27 [5-6]		 Ashley Hilton '24 [1-4, 7]
William Ascherl '24 [5-6]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 1 Nate Hartwell '24 [1-7] Cole Gunter '24 [1-4]
Robert Montgomery '22 [5-7]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 2 Gavin Faircloth '22 [1-4]
Sullivan Stankoski '23 [5-7]		 Sullivan Stankoski '23 [1-4]
Gavin Faircloth '22 [5-7]
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish Johnny Chatelain '25 [1-7] Sarah Matthews '26 [1, 4-5, 7]
David Callecod '25 [2-3, 6]
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity Isabelle Gautier '22 Loram Segee '22

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From ESE (114°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →