St. Patrick Catholic High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 (fleet 0.08) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–7 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 5–7 against 4.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-26 | Mississippi Team Racing Champs | skipper | 0.16 | 0.57 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 2022-03-27 | Mississippi Team Racing Champs | skipper | 0.10 | 0.02 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MS Champs - Fleet Racing | Crew | A | 6 | 2.3 | +0.12 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Mississippi Team Racing Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Mississippi Fleet Racing Champs | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.0 | -0.51 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mississippi Team Racing Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Mississippi Fleet Racing Champs | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 0.32 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Monk Smith | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.7 | -0.14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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