| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Gulfport High School | Admirals | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,293 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 12 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.240 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.77 ± 0.62: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays | 1 | 3.56 | Connor Fanberg / Harrison Dietz Aidan Mckoin / Degan Dansereau 4–0 Arthur Meade / David Karcher 4–0 Aidan Mckoin / Arthur Meade 2–0 David Karcher / Dylan Davis 2–0 | 88% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 2 | 1.81 school +0.07, home +0.08 | Devon Long / Karoline Burroughs 0.70 Ruston Breisacher / C.T. Ilgenfritz 0.44 2–2 Jeremy Reddoch / Ashley Hilton 0.58 4–0 Aidan Castle / Jackson Timberlake 2–0 Aidan Castle / Fynn Erichson 0–2 | 61% | 4–2 (67%) | +0.4 |
| 3 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | 3 | 0.31 | Johnny Chatelain / Tate Bartgis 0.16 Court Salloum / Logan Spain 0.66 Sarah Matthews / Logan Shepard -0.65 | 28% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.3 |
| 4 | Gulfport High School Admirals | 4 | 0.04 | Anderson Wolford / Mason Gee 0.75 Virginia Ann Wolford / Cooper Findley Elan Knoll / Virginia Ann Wolford -0.49 | 23% | 0–6 (0%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 3.56 | 6.56 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 2 | St. Stanislaus | 1.81 | 2.29 | 4–2 | 3.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 3 | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.31 | 0.72 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 4 | Gulfport High School | 0.04 | -2.96 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mckoin | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.76 | 3.76 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 46% |
| Connor Fanberg | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 1.67 | 4.67 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 46% |
| Arthur Meade | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 1.17 | 4.17 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| Jeremy Reddoch | St. Stanislaus | 0.58 | 3.58 | 4–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 39% |
| Devon Long | St. Stanislaus | 0.70 | 1.17 | 4–2 | 3.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 57% |
| Johnny Chatelain | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.16 | 0.57 | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Ruston Breisacher | St. Stanislaus | 0.44 | 0.40 | 2–2 | 2.0 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Aidan Castle | St. Stanislaus | 0.41 | 0.26 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Anderson Wolford | Gulfport High School | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Virginia Ann Wolford | Gulfport High School | -0.25 | -3.25 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Elan Knoll | Gulfport High School | -0.49 | -3.49 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Fighting Irish | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Fighting Irish | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-5-6 DNS |
| 12 | |
Blue Jays | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | Aidan Mckoin '26 Arthur Meade '27 Connor Fanberg '26 David Karcher '26 |
Degan Dansereau '24 Arthur Meade '27 David Karcher '26 Harrison Dietz '24 Dylan Davis '24 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Aidan Castle '25 Devon Long '24 Jeremy Reddoch '23 Ruston Breisacher '24 |
Fynn Erichson '24 Jackson Timberlake '27 Karoline Burroughs '26 Ashley Hilton '24 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 |
|
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | Court Salloum '26 Johnny Chatelain '25 Sarah Matthews '26 |
Logan Spain '26 Tate Bartgis '24 Logan Shepard '26 |
|
Gulfport High School | Admirals | Anderson Wolford '24 Elan Knoll '23 Virginia Ann Wolford '27 |
Mason Gee '30 Virginia Ann Wolford '27 Cooper Findley '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
