| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Gulfport High School | Admirals | 2–4 |
| 4 | |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,042 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.464 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +1.24 ± 0.86: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1 | 1.26 school +0.12, home +0.06 | Jeremy Reddoch / Alexandra Bujan Ruston Breisacher / Ashley Hilton Devon Long / Karoline Burroughs 0.37 | 74% | 6–0 (100%) | +1.6 |
| 2 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | 2 | 0.33 school +0.10 | Sarah Matthews / Sonora Ritchie Johnny Chatelain / Tate Hobbs Court Salloum / Logan Spain | 51% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.1 |
| 3 | Gulfport High School Admirals | 3 | -0.16 | Anderson Wolford / Mason Gee Eleanor Omara / Virginia Ann Wolford Elan Knoll / Cooper Findley | 40% | 2–4 (33%) | −0.4 |
| 4 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 4 | -0.36 school +0.12, home +0.06 | John Andre / Jonah Grumme -0.04 Jackson Timberlake / Kade Johnston 1–3 Landon Newton / William Ascherl 1–3 Jackson Timberlake / Wynn Danielson 0–2 Landon Newton / Aidan Castle 0–2 | 35% | 1–5 (17%) | −1.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1.26 | 4.26 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| 2 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | 0.33 | 0.25 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 3 | Gulfport High School Admirals | -0.16 | -0.53 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 4 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | -0.36 | -1.70 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.33 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Reddoch | St. Stanislaus | 0.21 | 3.21 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| Ruston Breisacher | St. Stanislaus | 0.33 | 3.33 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| Devon Long | St. Stanislaus | 0.37 | 3.37 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| Johnny Chatelain | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.10 | 0.02 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Anderson Wolford | Gulfport High School | 0.58 | 0.21 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Eleanor Omara | Gulfport High School | -0.40 | -0.76 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Elan Knoll | Gulfport High School | -0.56 | -0.93 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Jackson Timberlake | St. Stanislaus | -0.15 | -1.48 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.33 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Landon Newton | St. Stanislaus | -0.52 | -1.85 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.33 | 0.8 | 93% |
| John Andre | St. Stanislaus | -0.04 | -1.37 | 1–5 | 2.1 | −1.33 | 0.8 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | Gulfport High School Admirals | 47% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | 68% | |
| 1 | 3 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | Gulfport High School Admirals | 75% | |
| 1 | 4 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 62% | |
| 1 | 5 | Gulfport High School Admirals | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | 41% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 79% | |
| 2 | 7 | Gulfport High School Admirals | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 54% | |
| 2 | 8 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | 67% | |
| 2 | 9 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | Gulfport High School Admirals | 75% | |
| 2 | 10 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 63% | |
| 2 | 11 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | Gulfport High School Admirals | 59% | |
| 2 | 12 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 79% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 1-3-6 DNF | def. | |
Admirals | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 1-2-6 DSQ,DNS |
| 5 | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-3-5 DSQ |
| 6 | |
Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rock-A-Chaws 1 | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws 2 | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws 1 | Devon Long '24 Jeremy Reddoch '23 Ruston Breisacher '24 |
Karoline Burroughs '26 Alexandra Bujan '24 Ashley Hilton '24 |
|
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | Court Salloum '26 Johnny Chatelain '25 Sarah Matthews '26 |
Logan Spain '26 Tate Hobbs '27 Sonora Ritchie '29 |
|
Gulfport High School | Admirals | Anderson Wolford '24 Elan Knoll '23 Eleanor Omara '26 |
Mason Gee '30 Cooper Findley '25 Virginia Ann Wolford '27 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws 2 | Jackson Timberlake '27 John Andre '24 Landon Newton '26 |
Kade Johnston '26 Wynn Danielson '27 Jonah Grumme '26 William Ascherl '24 Aidan Castle '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
