| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,983 team race matches sailed before 2020-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 5 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.447 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 1 | 1.12 home +0.01 | Joshua Grumme / Lane Burroughs 0.76 Joel Grumme / Robert Cabell John Andre / Ruston Breisacher | 64% | 5–0 (100%) | +1.8 |
| 2 | Ursuline Academy Lions | 2 | 0.38 | Emily Threeton / Emily Williams 0.43 Elsie Leblanc / Sophie Chevis Cassidy O'Brien / Julia Poche | 36% | 0–5 (0%) | −1.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Stanislaus | 1.12 | 4.12 | 5–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 11% |
| 2 | Ursuline Academy | 0.38 | -2.62 | 0–5 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Grumme | St. Stanislaus | 0.76 | 3.76 | 5–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 11% |
| Joel Grumme | St. Stanislaus | 0.28 | 3.28 | 5–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 11% |
| John Andre | St. Stanislaus | -0.09 | 2.91 | 5–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 11% |
| Elsie Leblanc | Ursuline Academy | -0.17 | -3.17 | 0–5 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| Cassidy O'Brien | Ursuline Academy | 0.07 | -2.93 | 0–5 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 63% | |
| 2 | 2 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 64% | |
| 3 | 3 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 64% | |
| 4 | 4 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 64% | |
| 5 | 5 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 65% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Lions | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Joel Grumme '21 John Andre '24 Joshua Grumme '20 |
Robert Cabell '24 Ruston Breisacher '23 Lane Burroughs '24 |
|
Ursuline Academy | Lions | Cassidy O'Brien '21 Elsie Leblanc '20 Emily Threeton '22 |
Julia Poche '24 Sophie Chevis '21 Emily Williams '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
