Hospitality Regatta 2021

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 11 14 25
2 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 24 5 29
3 SEISA 4 SEISA 4 SEISA 4 15 22 37
4 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 14 24 38
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 11 28 39
6 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 23 23 46
7 Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 31 15 46
8 SEISA 1 SEISA 1 SEISA 1 26 30 56
9 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 36 25 61
10 SEISA 3 SEISA 3 SEISA 3 39 39 78
11 SEISA 2 SEISA 2 SEISA 2 40 44 84
12 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 43 43 86
SchoolTeam R1 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 3 3 3 2 11 Nate Hartwell '24
Graham Rose '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 5 2 1 3 11 Emily Threeton '22
Sibria Adams '23
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 1 1 4 8 14 Devon Long '24
Ruston Breisacher '24
SEISA 4 SEISA 4 SEISA 4 4 5 5 1 15
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 7 4 8 4 23 John Andre '24
Ashley Hilton '24
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 2 7 2 DSQ 24 Kip Buck '22
Layton Dugger '26
SEISA 1 SEISA 1 SEISA 1 6 6 7 7 26
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 10 10 6 5 31 Cruz Dabney '26
John French '22
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 8 9 10 9 36 Emerson Goodlett '24
Madelyn Oster '24
SEISA 3 SEISA 3 SEISA 3 11 11 11 6 39
SEISA 2 SEISA 2 SEISA 2 9 8 12 11 40
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 12 12 9 10 43 Sarah Hargrave '25 [1, 5]
Victoria Vandenweghe '23 [3-4]
Isabella Webster '22 [1, 5]
Josephine Lackey '23 [3]
Zoe Hozenthal '24 [4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 1 1 1 2 5 Cruz Dabney '26
Coleman Kennedy '25
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 4 4 2 4 14 Robert Montgomery '22 [1-2]
Gavin Faircloth '22 [3-4]
Cole Gunter '24 [1-4]
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 3 7 4 1 15 Aidyn James '25
No Show
SEISA 4 SEISA 4 SEISA 4 5 6 3 8 22
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 6 8 6 3 23 Aidan Castle '25
Lane Burroughs '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 8 5 5 6 24 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Alexandra Bujan '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 7 2 11 5 25 Julia Poche '24
Evie Barras '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 9 3 7 9 28 Meghan Keen '22
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24
SEISA 1 SEISA 1 SEISA 1 2 9 9 10 30
SEISA 3 SEISA 3 SEISA 3 12 10 10 7 39
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 11 12 8 12 43 Mackenzie Caballero '25 [1-2]
Isabella White '22 [3-4]
Lauren Galligan '25 [1-2]
Bryanna Foster '25 [3-4]
SEISA 2 SEISA 2 SEISA 2 10 11 12 11 44
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A3A4A5A
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles1223
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates2334
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals3445
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 14556
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 25667
SEISA 1SEISA 1 SEISA 16778
SEISA 2SEISA 2 SEISA 27889
SEISA 3SEISA 3 SEISA 389917
SEISA 4SEISA 4 SEISA 49171718
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 117181819
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 21819191
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 319112

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles7788
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates8899
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals991717
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 117171818
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 218181919
SEISA 1SEISA 1 SEISA 1191911
SEISA 2SEISA 2 SEISA 21122
SEISA 3SEISA 3 SEISA 32233
SEISA 4SEISA 4 SEISA 43344
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 14455
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 25566
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 36677

Conditions — 11/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1022.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →