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SEISA Fleet Race Championships

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 9 9 18
2 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 11 9 20
3 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 23 20 43
4 Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 18 42 60
5 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 42 22 64
6 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 33 34 67
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 1 1 2 2 1 2 9 Lucy Brock '22
Julius Heitkoetter '22
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 2 1 1 2 1 11 Ava Anderson '23
Kelly Bates '22
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 3 3 3 3 3 3 18 Stephen Momeier '23
Noah Roberts '23
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 2 4 5 4 4 4 23 Emily Alfortish '21
Ashley Alfortish '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 5 4 5 DNF DNS 33 Devon Long '24 [1-6]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [1-2]
Jeremy Reddoch '23 [3-4]
C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 [5-6]
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 42 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 2 1 2 2 9 Aidan Dennis '21
Piotr Smieja '22
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 2 1 2 1 1 9 James Brock '24
Vivian Heitkoetter '23
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 3 3 4 3 4 3 20 Nick Lovell '23
Ellie Menszer '22
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 4 4 3 4 3 4 22 Parker Younger '22 [1-4, 6]
Jack Van Zanten '21 [5]
Jack Van Zanten '21 [1-2, 6]
Mickey Valenti '25 [3-4]
Parker Younger '22 [5]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 5 DNF DNS 5 5 34 Joel Grumme '21 [1-2, 5-6]
John Andre '24 [3-4]
John Andre '24 [1-2]
Ashley Hilton '24 [3-4]
Ruston Breisacher '23 [5-6]
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 42 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights113355
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies226644
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers335511
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity442266
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club551133
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws664422

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights8810101212
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies77111199
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers1010121288
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity99771111
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club1212881010
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws11119977

Conditions — 04/17/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 27.2 kn
From N (356°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1018.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 19 kn · N 9 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lake Travis: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Travis by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Travis, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →