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Rock the New Year

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 18 18
2 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 35 35
3 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 42 42
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 46 46
5 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 46 46
6 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 47 47
7 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 47 47
8 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 55 55
9 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 66 66
10 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 69 69
11 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 72 72
12 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7 82 82
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 1 10 2 1 1 1 1 1 18 Joel Grumme '21
Lane Burroughs '24
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 4 2 10 3 7 3 2 4 35 Sahana Jaligam '22
Elise Poche '23
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 2 8 9 9 2 5 5 2 42 Harriss Thorne '23
Taylor Hemelt '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 5 4 6 12 3 4 9 3 46 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Jonah Grumme '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 DNF 6 1 2 6 2 10 6 46 Devon Long '24
Karoline Burroughs '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 3 1 3 7 4 11 8 10 47 John Andre '24
Alexandra Bujan '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 6 5 4 8 5 8 6 5 47 Emerson Goodlett '24
Madelyn Oster '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 7 7 5 5 12 6 4 9 55 Julia Poche '24
Evie Barras '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 9 9 12 4 8 10 7 7 66 Wallace St. Paul '21
Arthur Chapman '25
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 8 3 7 6 11 12 11 11 69 Emily Williams '23
Sibria Adams '23
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 10 12 11 10 9 9 3 8 72 Ruston Breisacher '23
William Ascherl '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7 11 11 8 11 10 7 12 12 82 Ashley Hilton '24 [1-8]
Janna Babin '24 [1-4]
Olivia May '24 [5-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 122222222
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 211111111
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 187198719871987198719871987198719
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 266666666
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 311111111
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4130130130130130130130130
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 587188718871887188718871887188718
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 61616161616161616
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 787178717871787178717871787178717
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 144444444
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 255555555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 366666666

Conditions — 01/16/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From W (279°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1017.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →