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Halloween Regatta 2021

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 26 26
2 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7 27 27
3 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 8 29 29
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 37 37
5 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 48 48
6 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 53 53
7 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 90 90
8 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 90 90
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 3 3 2 26 John Andre '24
William Ascherl '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7 1 5 3 1 3 3 3 2 1 5 27 Ruston Breisacher '23
Ashley Hilton '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 8 DNS DNS 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 29 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Alexandra Bujan '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 DNF 1 4 4 2 2 4 4 4 3 37 Aiden Castle '25
Jonah Grumme '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 3 3 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 48 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 [1-10]
Lane Burroughs '24 [1-2]
Karoline Burroughs '26 [3-4]
Jackson Baggett '27 [5-6]
Michael Dawley '26 [7-8]
Landon Newton '26 [9-10]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 53 Jack Mullins '23 [1-10]
Aubrey Canzoneri '26 [1-7]
Kade Johnston '26 [8-10]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 Jackson Timberlake '27
Wynn Danielson '27
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23
Landon Newton '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 182828282828282828282
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 27777777777
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 326262626262626262626
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 46666666666
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 593939393939393939393
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 67777777777
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7130130130130130130130130130130
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 88888888888
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 Jackson Timberlake '27 Wynn Danielson '27
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Aiden Castle '25 Jonah Grumme '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 John Andre '24 William Ascherl '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 [1-10] Lane Burroughs '24 [1-2]
Karoline Burroughs '26 [3-4]
Jackson Baggett '27 [5-6]
Michael Dawley '26 [7-8]
Landon Newton '26 [9-10]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 Jack Mullins '23 [1-10] Aubrey Canzoneri '26 [1-7]
Kade Johnston '26 [8-10]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 Landon Newton '26
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 7 Ruston Breisacher '23 Ashley Hilton '24
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 8 Jeremy Reddoch '23 Alexandra Bujan '24

Conditions — 10/30/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1011.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.33)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.51
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+1.10 ± 0.41)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.33 means a rating gap counts about 29% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →