Girls Catholic School Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals 5 5
2 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 18 18
3 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 19 19
4 St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 1 19 19
5 St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 3 21 21
6 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 27 27
7 St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 2 34 34
8 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 35 35
9 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 42 42
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals 1 1 1 1 1 5 Darby Hayes '26
Elodie Scafidel '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 3 4 3 4 4 18 Evie Barras '24
Sibria Adams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 2 5 4 3 5 19 Emerson Goodlett '24
Madelyn Oster '24
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 1 7 3 5 2 2 19 Molly Fisher '25
Mabel Smith '27
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 3 4 8 2 BKD 3 21 Margaux Newman '25
Lindsey More '25
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 5 2 8 5 7 27 Julia Poche '24
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 2 9 7 6 6 6 34 Anya Davidson '27
Ellie Smith '25
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 6 6 7 7 9 35 Lilly Moody '26
Katherine Gutierrez '27
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 8 9 9 8 8 42 Josephine Lackey '23 [1]
Alexandra Sanchez '25 [2-5]
Zoe Hozenthal '24 [1]
Bryanna Foster '25 [2-4]
Sophia Rodriguez '24 [5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Academy of the Sacred HeartAcademy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals11111
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings22222
St. Ursula AcademySt. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 133333
St. Ursula AcademySt. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 244444
St. Ursula AcademySt. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 355555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 166666
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 277777
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 388888
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 499999
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals Darby Hayes '26 Elodie Scafidel '26
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings Lilly Moody '26 Katherine Gutierrez '27
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 1 Molly Fisher '25 Mabel Smith '27
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 2 Anya Davidson '27 Ellie Smith '25
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 3 Margaux Newman '25 Lindsey More '25
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 Emerson Goodlett '24 Madelyn Oster '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 Evie Barras '24 Sibria Adams '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 Julia Poche '24 Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 Josephine Lackey '23 [1]
Alexandra Sanchez '25 [2-5]
Zoe Hozenthal '24 [1]
Bryanna Foster '25 [2-4]
Sophia Rodriguez '24 [5]

Conditions — 02/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1017.6 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.7 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From NNW (329°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine2.3 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1017.6 hPa Rain0.11 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn · NW 11 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Ursuline Academy: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.73 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ursuline Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Ursuline Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →