| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Clear Lake High School | Falcons | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Isidore Newman School | Greenies | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 1–7 |
| 5 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,205 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 21 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.253 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.54 ± 0.47: an orderly event, more orderly than 81% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 1 | 6.15 school +0.07 | Hamilton Barclay / Kailey Warrior 2.28 Ava Anderson / Ava Anderson 1.90 Stephen Momeier / Tanner Ward 6–0 Stephen Momeier / Korbin Bendele 2–0 | 90% | 8–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 2 | Clear Lake High School Falcons | 3 | 4.06 | Matias Martin / Andrew "Andy" Hibbetts Jack Cronan / Drew Gourley Scott Maher / Cole Gourley | 59% | 6–3 (67%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Isidore Newman School Greenies | 2 | 4.11 school −0.12 | Ellie Menszer / Sullivan Reznik Nick Lovell / Joseph Culotta 0.89 Ashley Alfortish / Jack Laurent 1.70 | 60% | 5–4 (56%) | −0.4 |
| 4 | Ursuline Academy Lions | 5 | 1.35 school −0.17, home +0.09 | Emily Threeton / Emily Williams 0.63 Emerson Goodlett / Madelyn Oster Julia Poche / Evie Barras | 16% | 1–7 (12%) | −0.3 |
| 5 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 4 | 1.77 school +0.16 | Ruston Breisacher / Ashley Hilton 0.49 Devon Long / C.T. Ilgenfritz 0.64 Jeremy Reddoch / Lane Burroughs 0.45 0–4 Jeremy Reddoch / Aidan Castle 0.37 1–3 | 22% | 1–7 (12%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 6.15 | 9.15 | 8–0 | 7.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 2 | Clear Lake High School | 4.06 | 4.73 | 6–3 | 5.3 | +0.66 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 3 | Isidore Newman School | 4.11 | 3.78 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 4 | Ursuline Academy | 1.35 | 0.87 | 1–7 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 5 | St. Stanislaus | 1.77 | 0.62 | 1–7 | 1.8 | −1.15 | 0.5 | 91% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Anderson | Clear Falls High School | 1.90 | 4.90 | 8–0 | 7.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| Scott Maher | Clear Lake High School | 0.71 | 1.37 | 6–3 | 5.3 | +0.66 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Ellie Menszer | Isidore Newman School | 1.50 | 1.17 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Nick Lovell | Isidore Newman School | 0.89 | 0.55 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Ashley Alfortish | Isidore Newman School | 1.70 | 1.36 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Emerson Goodlett | Ursuline Academy | 0.01 | -0.46 | 1–7 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Julia Poche | Ursuline Academy | 0.57 | 0.10 | 1–7 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Ruston Breisacher | St. Stanislaus | 0.49 | -0.67 | 1–7 | 1.8 | −1.15 | 0.5 | 91% |
| Devon Long | St. Stanislaus | 0.64 | -0.51 | 1–7 | 1.8 | −1.15 | 0.5 | 91% |
| Jeremy Reddoch | St. Stanislaus | 0.45 | -0.70 | 1–7 | 1.8 | −1.15 | 0.5 | 91% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Greenies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Knights | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Greenies | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Greenies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Greenies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Greenies | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 DSQ | def. | |
Greenies | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Lions | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Knights | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Greenies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Greenies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Greenies | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Ava Anderson '23 Hamilton Barclay '23 Stephen Momeier '23 |
Ava Anderson '23 Kailey Warrior '23 Tanner Ward '24 Korbin Bendele '25 |
|
Clear Lake High School | Falcons | Jack Cronan '25 Matias Martin '23 Scott Maher '23 |
Drew Gourley '23 Andrew "Andy" Hibbetts '25 Cole Gourley '25 |
|
Isidore Newman School | Greenies | Ashley Alfortish '23 Ellie Menszer '22 Nick Lovell '23 |
Jack Laurent '24 Sullivan Reznik '30 Joseph Culotta '24 |
|
Ursuline Academy | Lions | Emerson Goodlett '24 Emily Threeton '22 Julia Poche '24 |
Madelyn Oster '24 Emily Williams '23 Evie Barras '24 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Devon Long '24 Jeremy Reddoch '23 Ruston Breisacher '24 |
C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 Lane Burroughs '24 Aidan Castle '25 Ashley Hilton '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
