Ursuline Schools Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 12 12
2 St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 1 18 18
3 St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 2 29 29
4 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 32 32
5 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 40 40
6 St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 3 48 48
7 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 61 61
8 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 62 62
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 12 Emily Threeton '22
Karen Stiegler '21
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 1 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 18 No Show
Anna Nappi '21
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 2 7 7 2 5 2 3 1 2 29 Tessa Nappi '23
Lil Smith '23
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 6 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 32 Elsie Leblanc '20 [1-8]
Sophie Chevis '21 [1-4]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [5-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 2 4 5 DNS 5 5 5 5 40 Cassidy O'Brien '21 [1-4]
Riley Reech '20 [5-6]
Julia Poche '24 [7-8]
Kate Ford '21 [1-4]
Corinne Martin '20 [5-8]
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 3 8 6 6 4 6 6 6 6 48 Molly More '23
Abby More '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 5 5 8 7 DNF DNS DNF DNS 61 Meghan Keen '22 [1-2]
Hallie Liljeberg '24 [3-8]
Isabella Webster '22 [1-3]
Nicolette Welch '24 [4-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 4 DNF 7 6 DNF DNS DNF DNS 62 Isabella White '22 [1-8]
Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24 [1-3]
Evie Barras '24 [4-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
St. Ursula AcademySt. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 111111111
St. Ursula AcademySt. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 222222222
St. Ursula AcademySt. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 333333333
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 144444444
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 255555555
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 366666666
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 477777777
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 588888888
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 1 No Show Anna Nappi '21
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 2 Tessa Nappi '23 Lil Smith '23
St. Ursula Academy St. Ursula Academy Bulldogs 3 Molly More '23 Abby More '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 Emily Threeton '22 Karen Stiegler '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 Elsie Leblanc '20 [1-8] Sophie Chevis '21 [1-4]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [5-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 Meghan Keen '22 [1-2]
Hallie Liljeberg '24 [3-8]
Isabella Webster '22 [1-3]
Nicolette Welch '24 [4-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 Isabella White '22 [1-8] Kelsa Marie Jacobs '24 [1-3]
Evie Barras '24 [4-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 Cassidy O'Brien '21 [1-4]
Riley Reech '20 [5-6]
Julia Poche '24 [7-8]
Kate Ford '21 [1-4]
Corinne Martin '20 [5-8]

Conditions — 02/15/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From E (99°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1026.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 13 kn · E 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ursuline Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.36
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.75 ± 0.38)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ursuline Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Ursuline Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →